:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 May 04 0612 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 27 April - 03 May 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low
levels during the period. Very
low levels were observed on 27 April and on 02
May. Solar activity
was in decline during the beginning of the period as
Region 2331
(S10, L=021, class/area Dai/240 on 26 Apr) rotated around the
SW
limb on 29 April. Only isolated low level C-class flaring was
observed
for the majority of the period until new Region 2335 (S15,
L=192, class/area
Dai/220 on 02 May) rotated around the SE limb on
30 April. This region slowly
developed in both area and magnetic
class during its first few days on the
visible disk and culminated
in seven C-class flares; the largest of which was
a C2 flare at
01/0257 UTC. Other activity of note included an 18 degree
filament
eruption, centered near S46E09, observed lifting off the
visible
disk between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Associated with this eruption was
a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 02/2036 UTC with an approximate speed of
473 km/s. Although the
majority of the ejecta appeared to be
southward of the ecliptic plane,
WSA/ENLIL modelling of the event
showed a potential impact after midday on 06
May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to
moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 27-29
April and again on
02-03 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through late in
the
period. At approximately 30/0515 UTC, total field showed an
increase
from 6 nT to 11 nT with a weak increase in solar wind speed
from
approximately 280 km/s to 350 km/s. Further increases in speed
to
around 450 km/s occurred on 01 May as a weak, positive polarity
coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. CH HSS
influence
continued through the end of the period. The geomagnetic
field responded with
quiet to unsettled conditions on 02-03 May.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 04 MAY - 30 MAY 2015
Solar activity is expected to
be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare activity from 04-21
May and again from 28-30 May with
the return of old Regions 2322
(N11, L=116) and 2325 (N05, L=050).
No
proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with high levels
possible from 07-08, 13-21, and 29-30 May
due to CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
quiet to unsettled
levels from 05-07 May with active periods likely on 06-07
May due to
a combination of CH HSS effects and the arrival of the 02 May CME
by
mid to late on 06 May. Unsettled to active conditions with likely
minor
storm periods (G1-Minor) are expected from 12-15 and 17-20 May
due to a
recurrent CH HSS. A weak CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective from 27-30
May causing quiet to unsettled conditions.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 04 0613 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-05-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 May 04 115
5 2
2015 May 05 115 8 3
2015 May 06
120 15 4
2015 May 07 120 10 3
2015
May 08 125 5 2
2015 May 09 125
5 2
2015 May 10 130 5 2
2015 May 11
135 5 2
2015 May 12 140 25 5
2015
May 13 140 20 5
2015 May 14 135
20 5
2015 May 15 130 12 4
2015 May 16
130 8 3
2015 May 17 125 12 4
2015
May 18 125 20 5
2015 May 19 120
12 4
2015 May 20 115 8 3
2015 May 21
115 5 2
2015 May 22 115 5 2
2015
May 23 115 5 2
2015 May 24 110
5 2
2015 May 25 110 5 2
2015 May 26
110 5 2
2015 May 27 115 10 3
2015
May 28 120 10 3
2015 May 29 120
8 3
2015 May 30 120 8 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
