Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 02 0421 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 October - 01 November 2020

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Multiple C-class
flares were observed from both Regions 2778 (S20, L=086, class/area
Eko/300 on 29 Oct) and 2779 (S17, L=075, class/area Cai/140 on 29
Oct). The largest was a pair of C4.3/Sf flares at 27/0616 UTC from
Region 2778 and at 29/1150 UTC from Region 2779.

Other activity included an approximate 14 degree filament eruption
centered near N37E05 was observed in H-alpha imagery beginning at
26/2212 UTC. An associated, slow moving, CME was observed off the SE
limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 27/0724 UTC. WSA/ENLIL
analysis of the event showed a likely arrival on 01 Nov.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 26 Oct - 01 Nov due to coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) influence. The largest flux of the period was 21,600 pfu
observed at 28/1510 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
period began under the influence of a positive polarity, polar
connected, CH HSS. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 639 km/s at
26/1001 UTC with total field reaching 9 nT early. Solar wind speed
was in slow decline by 27 Oct and was at nominal levels by 30 Oct.
The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 26-27
Oct and 29 Oct. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 28 Oct. A
return to quiet levels was observed on 30 Oct. By 31/1500 UTC, a
slight increase in density was observed followed by an increased in
total field on 01 Nov to 9 nT with a prolonged period of southward
Bz near -6 nT. This is likely an indication of weak CME influences
from the 26 Oct filament eruption. The geomagnetic field responded
with quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Oct - 01 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 November - 28 November 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 02-13 Nov.
Very low to low levels are expected on 14-28 Nov due to the return
of Regions 2778 and 2779.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02-20 Nov. High
levels are expected on 21-28 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 02 Nov due to persistent weak CME influence. Recurrent CH
HSS influence is expected to cause unsettled to active levels on 17
and 19-25 Nov. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 03-16, 18,
and 26-28 Nov.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 02 0421 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-11-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Nov 02      74           8          3
2020 Nov 03      72           5          2
2020 Nov 04      72           5          2
2020 Nov 05      72           5          2
2020 Nov 06      72           5          2
2020 Nov 07      72           5          2
2020 Nov 08      72           5          2
2020 Nov 09      74           5          2
2020 Nov 10      74           5          2
2020 Nov 11      74           5          2
2020 Nov 12      74           5          2
2020 Nov 13      74           5          2
2020 Nov 14      75           5          2
2020 Nov 15      76           5          2
2020 Nov 16      76           5          2
2020 Nov 17      76          10          3
2020 Nov 18      76           5          2
2020 Nov 19      76          10          3
2020 Nov 20      76          15          4
2020 Nov 21      76          12          4
2020 Nov 22      75          12          4
2020 Nov 23      75           8          3
2020 Nov 24      75          10          3
2020 Nov 25      75          12          4
2020 Nov 26      75           5          2
2020 Nov 27      75           5          2
2020 Nov 28      74          10          3