:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 May 09 0436 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 02 - 08 May 2016
Solar activity was low and only C-class flare
activity was observed.
Region 2540 (N21, L=068, class/area=Hrx/20 on 01 May)
produced a C3
flare at 02/0842 UTC which was the largest event of the
period.
Region 2535 (N05, L=124, class/area=Hax/60 on 24 Apr) produced a
C1
flare at 04/1531 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep
(est.
shock speed 560 km/s) and coronal mass ejection (CME). This
CME was first
observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning
04/1412 UTC and likely
arrived at Earth early on 08 May (see geomag
section below for additional
information). A pair of filament
eruptions centered near N22E39 and N31E42
were observed in GONG
imagery beginning at around 07/1515 UTC. The associated
CME was
first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at 07/1648 UTC but
analysis
indicated that this CME was not Earth-directed.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 03-06 May and
moderate levels on 02, 07-08 May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at
unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 02 May with quiet to
active levels on 03
May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal
hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet levels were observed on 04 May
and
quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 05 May under a
nominal
solar wind regime. The onset of a positive polarity CH HSS
caused
quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 06 May and quiet to
active
levels on 07 May. On 08 May G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic
storms
were observed and analysis suggested that a CME (likely from 04
May
as mentioned in solar activity section) was embedded in a
CIR
preceding a negative polarity CH HSS.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 09 MAY - 04 JUNE 2016
Solar activity is expected to
be at very low (B-class flares) to low
(C-class flares) levels throughout the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to reach very high levels on 10-13 May and high levels on
09,
14, and 30 May-02 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the
remainder of
the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G3
(Strong)
geomagnetic storm levels on 09 May and G1 (Minor) storm levels on
10
May due to the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed
stream (CH HSS). G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20 May
due to the
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS as well as on 29
May and 04 Jun due
to the influence of negative polarity CH HSSs.
:Product: 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 09 0436 UTC
# Prepared by
the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-05-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 May 09 85
43 6
2016 May 10 85 25 5
2016 May 11
90 15 4
2016 May 12 90 8 3
2016
May 13 90 5 2
2016 May 14 95
5 2
2016 May 15 95 12 4
2016 May 16
90 8 3
2016 May 17 85 5 2
2016
May 18 82 5 2
2016 May 19 82
12 4
2016 May 20 82 15 5
2016 May 21
82 12 4
2016 May 22 82 5 2
2016
May 23 85 5 2
2016 May 24 85
10 3
2016 May 25 85 5 2
2016 May 26
90 5 2
2016 May 27 90 5 2
2016
May 28 90 10 3
2016 May 29 90
25 5
2016 May 30 90 10 4
2016 May 31
88 5 2
2016 Jun 01 88 5 2
2016
Jun 02 88 12 4
2016 Jun 03 85
12 4
2016 Jun 04 85 30 5
(via DXLD)
