sabato 15 agosto 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period August 14 - 20, 2015

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A9.0-B5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 80-115 f.u.
Events: class C (0-8/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 5-60

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 14 - 20, 2015

Next three days, Aug 14 - 16, we expect at the Budkov observatory at most
quiet conditions.
Next days, Aug 17 - 18, quiet to unsettled conditions are most probable.
The last days of forecasted week, we expect unsettled conditions caused by
passed coronal hole. In this time, active period is possible.

Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics ASCR
Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 14 - September 9, 2015

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on August 14, 21, 31, September 9
mostly quiet on August 15, September 1, 5 - 7
quiet to unsettled on August 16, 19 - 20, 22 - 25, 28 - 30
quiet to active on August 17, 27, September 3 - 4, 8
active to disturbed on August 18, 26, September 2

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on August (15 - 17,)
25 - 27, 31, September 1, 5 - 6

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions remains reduced in pesent solar cycle phase.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz