:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Apr 04 0517 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 March - 03 April 2022
Solar activity reached high levels at 30/1737 UTC due to an X1
flare, the largest of the period, from Region 2975 (N13, L=088,
class/area Dkc/330 on 30 Mar). This event was associated with Type
II (estimated speed of 1,424 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, 10 cm
radio burst (540 sfu), and a CME that after modeling did not appear
to contain an Earth-directed component. Region 2975 was the most
active and magnetically complex region on the disk throughout the
period. It was responsible for an M4 flare at 28/1129 UTC, with
associated Type II radio sweep and a partial halo/asymmetric CME.
Region 2975 produced a second M-flare, an M1/Sn at 28/2059 UTC, also
with Type II activity and a full halo/asymmetric CME. Subsequent
analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from both
events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively. The second
and faster CME was forecast to catch up and combine with the first
transient from the M4 event. The combined arrival of both events at
the magnetosphere was forecast for early on 31 Mar. Region 2975
was responsible for an M9/1b flare at 31/1835 UTC, with associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, 10 cm radio bursts and a CME that
was not determined to be Earth-directed. Region 2975 produced four
additional M-flares during the period: an M2/2n flare at 29/0111
UTC; an M1 flare at 29/2152 UTC; an M2 flare at 02/0256 UTC; and an
M4/1n flare at 02/1744 UTC. Region 2976 (N15, L=068, class/area
Eko/550 on 30 Mar) produced an M3/Sn flare at 02/1355 UTC. Region
2974 (S18, L=090, class/area Cso/90 on 23 Mar) produced an M1/Sf
flare at 29/0158 UTC.
Four proton events were observed during the period. The first event
was a 10 MeV integral flux event that exceeded 10 pfu. It began at
28/1325 UTC, reached a maximum of 18.7 pfu at 28/1450 UTC, and ended
at 28/2115 UTC. The second event was a 100 MeV event that exceeded 1
pfu that began at 28/1245 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 1 pfu at
28/1325 UTC, and ended at 28/1455 UTC. The third event was a 10 MeV
integral flux event that exceeded 10pfu. This event began at
31/0620, reached a maximum flux of 10.6 pfu at 31/0630 UTC, and
ended at 31/0720 UTC. The last proton event was a 10 MeV integral
flux event that exceeded 10 pfu. This event began at 02/1430 UTC,
reached a maximum flux of 32 pfu at 02/1600 UTC, and ended at
03/0005 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 03 Apr with a peak flux of 2,600 pfu at 03/1505 UTC.
This activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the
28 Mar CMEs. Electron flux reached moderate levels on 28 Mar - 02
Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late on 30 Mar and
G1 (Minor) storm levels early on 31 Mar in response to a pair of
CMEs that left the solar disk on 28 Mar. Solar wind speed
stair-stepped from ~410 km/s to 500 km/s and then later 600+ km/s
after arrival. Total field peaked at 23 nT while Bz briefly dropped
as low as -12 nT. Active levels were observed on 01-03 Apr with G1
(Minor) storms observed on 02 Apr as these transient features
persisted and later combined with a negative-polarity CH HSS. Active
levels were observed on 28 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS
influence and quiet conditions prevailed on 29 Mar on the days
preceding the dual CME arrival.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 April - 30 April 2022
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with
a chance for X-class flaring on 04 Apr. M-class flaring probability
decreases to a slight chance on 05-06 Apr as Region 2975 rotates
around the west limb. These probabilities are anticipated on 14-27
Apr with the return of Region 2975. Very low to low activity is
expected on Apr 07-13 and 28-30 Apr.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit may
increase above the 10 pfu threshold (S1-Minor) on 04 Apr if Region
2975 produces another significant eruption. A return to background
levels is anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 04-07 Apr in response to persistent
combined CME/CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 04,
11, 23, 29-30 Apr and unsettled levels on 05, 12, 20-21, 24-25 Apr
due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are anticipated
for the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 04 0517 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-04-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Apr 04 130 10 4
2022 Apr 05 120 8 3
2022 Apr 06 120 5 2
2022 Apr 07 125 5 2
2022 Apr 08 125 5 2
2022 Apr 09 120 5 2
2022 Apr 10 115 5 2
2022 Apr 11 115 12 4
2022 Apr 12 110 10 3
2022 Apr 13 110 5 2
2022 Apr 14 115 5 2
2022 Apr 15 120 5 2
2022 Apr 16 120 5 2
2022 Apr 17 120 5 2
2022 Apr 18 125 5 2
2022 Apr 19 125 5 2
2022 Apr 20 130 10 3
2022 Apr 21 130 10 3
2022 Apr 22 130 5 2
2022 Apr 23 130 15 4
2022 Apr 24 140 10 3
2022 Apr 25 140 8 3
2022 Apr 26 140 5 2
2022 Apr 27 140 5 2
2022 Apr 28 140 5 2
2022 Apr 29 135 18 4
2022 Apr 30 135 12 4
{gh corrected 3 or 4 spelling errors - via WOR io group}