ITALIAN AMATEUR RADIO STATION
I T 9 T Z Z
ESCLUSIVAMENTE IN TELEGRAFIA
Sito web> www.webalice.it/it9tzz
QRZ.com page> www.qrz.com/db/it9tzz
mercoledì 31 ottobre 2018
Stazione DRM Radio China?
Screenshot apparso su 6030 kHz attorno alle 1600 UTC del 31 ottobre sulla
frequenza di 6030 kHz fino a poco prima utilizzata da Radio Romania. Il segnale
era molto "sporco" e quindi non è stato possibile ascoltare qualcosa di
indiziario.
Glenn Hauser logs October 30-31, 2018
** EAST TURKISTAN. 11880, Oct 31 at 1402, CRI news in English, S9-S6 with heavy flutter, about 1 second ahead of 15700 Habana relay. This is one of the ubiquitous 500 kW, 308 degree transmissions aimed at Europe from Kashi-Saibagh 2022 site as Aoki/NDXC denotes it, i.e. from a.k.a. China`s Xinjiang province, where a million Uighurs are being imprisoned and brainwashed. Here just one of many reports about that:https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/china-holds-million-uighur-muslims-concentration-camps-180912105738481.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** ERITREA. 7140.020, Oct 31 at 0334, JBA carrier, presumed VOBME as others have reported, still Intruding, while the other VOBME is not being heard on 7180v (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** KUWAIT. 13645-13650-13655, Oct 31 at 1353, S9 DRM noise, still at 1438. I can only assume another SNAFU at R. Kuwait which is not supposed to be here until 1700-2000 in Arabic DRM, according to HFCC and Aoki/NDXC. In fact, at 1300-1400 the other Kuwaiti site is scheduled on 13650-AM, IBB in Tibetan! That would be the JBA carrier I can barely hear amid on 13650.
Furthermore, I hear narrowband DRM noise about 13690-13695. This could be a spur from the 13650 transmitter. After all, everything else can go wrong, so why not DRM spurs just like we can get AM spurs?? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** OKLAHOMA. KWTV must be getting close to repack QSY from RF 39 to RF 25. At 0350 UT Oct 31, glimpsed a promo for http://rescanoklahoma.com
Altho obviously sponsored by KWTV-9, site provides only generic info about the need to rescan, no explanation of what is really going on! It`s not that simple. Depending on tropo conditions when you do it, you could gain unexpected channels, or lose old channels due to CCI! What you need is a TV/STB that lets you manually add and delete channels --- one of my TVs does not, requires autoscanning only, to my chagrin.
25 is always on but too weak to decode whether it`s still color bars or KWTV programming already. IIRC, not allowed to // program both at once. They better get up to full power on 25 before abandoning 39, lest they lose a lot of viewers in the fringe area! (Glenn Hauser, Enid, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** SOMALILAND [non]. 7120-LSB, Oct 31 at 0334, unID SS ham benefits from R. Hargeisa still silenced; couldn`t they just go to a proper SWBC frequency? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** SPAIN. 9690, Tue Oct 30 at 2313, REE S9+10 with rock music, 2315 Castilian announcement --- NOT in English like début yesterday at 2300. 2330 timesignal and into French, YL and music; by 2352 fading down with flutter, S9 to S5. At 0000 UT Wed Oct 31 I can barely tell it has switched to Portuguese. By 0333 I can`t hear anything on 9690, so can`t confirm whether it`s really on until 0400 including an English repeat at 0300. REE needs a better understanding of basic propagation, like using a lower band to us on winter nights!
Turns out that unlike other languages, English is scheduled on M/W/F only. Dave Kenny, BDXC-UK, also heard the first one saying that it repeats at 0300 following UT days (altho 2300 UT is already the next day locally in Spain with its wacky advanced timezoning). Dave:
``This is confirmed by the online programme schedule which also give the times of some of the other languages
http://www.rtve.es/radio/radio-exterior/programacion/
(NB this schedule is in Spanish time - subtract one hour for UTC)
The repeat English broadcast at 0300 needs confirming as according to REE’s earlier frequency announcement shortwave broadcasts stop at 0300, although HFCC shows 9690 continuing until 0400.
The English programme can be downloaded at http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/audios/emision-en-ingles/
This confusingly states "English Language Broadcast Martes, jueves y sábado da las 23.00 horas UTC y las 03.00 horas UTC"``
Note that the full schedule does not give any program titles for English; despite my monitoring confirmation of Russian at 1800 UT, it claims Portuguese instead of Russian at 19h HOE; and Sefardi is weekly, only Sundays at 2230 UT.
The English archive briefly gives the topic of each one; note that all are a bit over 30 minutes long, a few much over, like 34, 37, 41. This may be inconvenient to fit into SW slots (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** TURKEY. 11815.707, Oct 31 at 1359, VG S9+10 signal from TRT Turkish which just moved from 15350, way atop NHK JAPAN on 11815.0 producing only a weak het. Yesterday TRT was within a few Hz of 11815.00. Note that today`s offset is exactly the same as I measured yesterday at same time on English, 12035.707! Today the latter is back close to 12035.00. Do they have one transmitter which is always way off, and swap it around, or what? A time signal at 1400 is about a semi-second early compared to WWV (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A. WORLD OF RADIO 1954 monitoring: confirmed Tuesday October 30 after 2030 on WRMI 7780, very poor/JBA in daytime noise level off side of the beam. How is it in Europe? Also confirmed Wednesday October 31 at 1050, the 1030 on WRMI 5950, fairly sufficient. Next:
2100 UT Wednesday WRMI 9955 to SSE
2100 UT Wednesday WBCQ 7490v to WSW
0729 UT Saturday HLR 6190-CUSB Germany to WSW
1231 UT Saturday Unique 9265V via WINB to WSW
1531 UT Saturday HLR 9485-CUSB Germany to WSW
1700 UT Saturday WRN 5950 via WRMI to WNW
1930vUT Saturday WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional
0300vUT Sunday WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional [nominal 0315-]
1130 UT Sunday HLR 7265-CUSB Germany to WSW
2130 UT Sunday WRMI 7780 to NE
2230 UT Sunday WRMI 9955 to SSE
0230 UT Monday WRN 5950 via WRMI to WNW [? not last week]
0400vUT Monday Area 51 5130v via WBCQ to WSW
0430 UT Monday WRMI 9955 to SSE
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A. 15665-15670-15675, Oct 31 at 1354 & 1435 chex, no sign of DRM today as scheduled from WINB; making up for that with extra DRM on 13650 is KUWAIT, q.v. (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
This report dispatched at 1707 UT October 31
W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-304
Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#304 Issued Wednesday October 31, 2018 at 1615 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
67.5 67.1 67.9
There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) below 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 15 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 180 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
7 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+24 & +11 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
375 & 270 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 1, 2018- steady then
improvement.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 2, 2018- improvement.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#304 Issued Wednesday October 31, 2018 at 1615 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
67.5 67.1 67.9
There had been 7 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) below 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 15 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 180 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
7 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+24 & +11 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
375 & 270 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 1, 2018- steady then
improvement.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 2, 2018- improvement.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
Spain: REE resumes foreign languages on SW
Confirmation last night of the very welcome return of foreign languages on shortwave from Radio Exterior de Espana.
REE English was heard here last night (29 October) at 2300-2330 UTC followed by French starting at 2330 UTC on 9690 and 12030 - only 9690 audible here with 12030 very weak.
Towards the end of the programme several songs about radio were played "to celebrate our return to the radio". The announcer said that English as well as Arabic, French, Portuguese, Russian and Safardic have returned to the airwaves “thanks to the efforts of Radio Exterior’s new management under our new director, old colleague Antonio Buitrago”
The English schedule was announced as
2300 UTC on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, repeated at 0300 UTC on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.
This is confirmed by the online programme schedule which also give the times of some of the other languages
http://www.rtve.es/radio/radio-exterior/programacion/
(NB this schedule is in Spanish time - subtract one hour for UTC)
The repeat English broadcast at 0300 needs confirming as according to REE’s earlier frequency announcement shortwave broadcasts stop at 0300, although HFCC shows 9690 continuing until 0400.
The English programme can be downloaded at
http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/audios/emision-en-ingles/
This confusingly states "English Language Broadcast Martes, jueves y sábado da las 23.00 horas UTC y las 03. 00 horas UTC"
So there is some confusion about the schedule at REE but the good news is that foreign languages from Spain are back on short wave!
73s (Dave Kenny
Caversham, Berks
AOR7030+ 25m long wire
Oct 30, bdxc-news iog via DXLD
Note that the full schedule does not give any program titles for English; claims Portuguese instead of Russian at 19h HOE, and Sefardi is weekly Sundays at 2230 UT.
The English archive briefly gives the topic of each one; note that all are a bit over 30 minutes long, a few much over, like 34, 37, 41 (gh)
Agenda DX 31/10/2018
ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio Hogar, Panama 670 Khz (1954)
Radio Itatiaia AM Vale do Aço, Brasile 650 Khz (1994)
Radio Cora del Perù 4915 Khz (1983)
XEZT, Puebla, Messico 1250 Khz (1969)
Radio Trinidad, Trinidad & Tobago 730 Khz (1947)
Radio Deportes, Colombia 830 Khz (1954)
Radio Hogar, Panama 670 Khz (1954)
Radio Itatiaia AM Vale do Aço, Brasile 650 Khz (1994)
Radio Cora del Perù 4915 Khz (1983)
XEZT, Puebla, Messico 1250 Khz (1969)
Radio Trinidad, Trinidad & Tobago 730 Khz (1947)
Radio Deportes, Colombia 830 Khz (1954)
martedì 30 ottobre 2018
Glenn Hauser logs October 30, 2018
** CANADA. 385 kHz, Oct 30 at 0604, dash and NDB ID as QV, which is 100 watts from Yorkton, Sask.; so my unID as YV was a miscopy (Q and Y are opposites in Morse).
366 kHz, Oct 30 at 0605, dash and NDB ID as YMW, which is 500 watts at Maniwaki, Quebec (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** CHINA [and non]. 7545, Oct 30 at 1435, Chinese atop another signal, i.e. CNR1 jamming vs VOA via PHILIPPINES (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** CHINA. 7435, Oct 30 at at 1437, Chinese? pop song, S9 to S9+10 with flutter, 1439 Russian announcement, strange accent; from CRI at 14-15, 500 kW, 37 degrees for DVR thus also USward. HFCC shows simulsked this hour for CRI Nepali, 283 degrees from Kunming, unheard here. It`s also a standby frequency for JIC MIC, Japan, inadvisable (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** THAILAND [and non]. 9940, Oct 30 at 1428, presumed HSK9 in English is VP, closing 1429 with bells and off 1429.5*, succeeded by even weaker signal which is FEBC Philippines opening Uighur. At least 9940 has no ACI problems. Ex-9390 abutting 9395 WRMI.
R. Thailand full usage of 9940 per HFCC is: 1200-1215 Malay, 1230-1300 English, 1300-1315 Japanese, 1315-1330 Mandarin, 1330-1400 Thai, 1400-1430 English; switching azimuths for each from Udorn. Englishes are both 132 degrees, no good for us, while the intervening Asian languages are at 30 or 54 degrees which should carry on USward much better (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** TURKEY. 12035.005, Oct 30 at 1355, VOT English back almost on-frequency after jump to 12035.707, 24 hours ago.
11815, Oct 30 at 1359, ME music with flutter atop NHK in Japanese, making fast SAH a few Hz apart but unmeasured; 5+1 TS at ToH, and YL Turkish talk, of course, since TRT has just moved here from 15350 which I also a heard a few minutes earlier. These two now overlap an hour 14-15 per HFCC, but acceptable to them since targets are far apart, neither for North America, altho Emirler is axually aimed USward 310 degrees beyond W Europe, and this would probably be our best frequency to hear NHK music at this time; or Turkish music if it were in the clear (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A. 382 kHz, Oct 30 at 0602, NDB ID as SP. This is 25 watts at Springfield IL; I was tuned to 380.
BTW, no sign of EN around 194 tonight, Kenosha/2, nor 388 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
UNIDENTIFIED. 7340, Oct 30 at 1438, pop song, not // 7435 CRI Russian. Aoki/NDXC B-18 which is now available zipped via
http://www1.s2.starcat.ne.jp/ndxc/
shows it could be either: AIR in Sindhi, 100 kW, 10 degrees from Mumbai; or PBS Xinjiang in Kazakh, 100 kW ND from Urumqi, East Turkistan, where mega-Uighurs are being brainwashed. That must make for quite a collision in the area (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
UNIDENTIFIED. 15151.50-USB, Oct 30 at 1354, 2-way in colloquial Spanish, INTRUDERS. This is a longtime spot for such, like Dec 5, 2014 at 1455 on 15151.0 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
This report dispatched at 1739 UT October 30
W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-303
Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#303 Issued Tuesday October 30, 2018 at 1600 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.5 68.8 68.4
There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) below 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 14 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 179 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
1 2 2 2 0 1 1 1.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
6 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+25 & +10 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
333 & 286 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 1, 2018- improvement.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#303 Issued Tuesday October 30, 2018 at 1600 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.5 68.8 68.4
There had been 6 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) below 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 14 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 179 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
1 2 2 2 0 1 1 1.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
6 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+25 & +10 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
333 & 286 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Nov 1, 2018- improvement.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
B18 schedule: Radio Dunamis Shortwave
1500-1900 on 4750 MUK 001 kW / non-dir to CeAf English/Vernaculars
B18 schedule: Radio Uganda
0200-0600 on 4976 KMP 010 kW / non-dir to CeAf English/Vernaculars
1300-2100 on 4976 KMP 010 kW / non-dir to CeAf English/Vernaculars
1300-2100 on 4976 KMP 010 kW / non-dir to CeAf English/Vernaculars
B18 schedule: Radio Nationale Tchadienne
0430-0730 on 6165 NDJ 250 kW / 065 deg to CeAf French
0730-1030 on 6165 NDJ 250 kW / 065 deg to CeAf French Sat/Sun
1030-2230 on 6165 NDJ 250 kW / 065 deg to CeAf French
0730-1030 on 6165 NDJ 250 kW / 065 deg to CeAf French Sat/Sun
1030-2230 on 6165 NDJ 250 kW / 065 deg to CeAf French
Ottima ricezione di Radio Kuwait su 15110 kHz in DRM
Ricezione ottima del programma in arabo di Radio Kuwait su
15110 kHz intercettato alle 1030 UTC. Condizioni di lavoro: Kenwood TS-440 e
antenna dipolo. Convertitore 12 kHz autocostruito. QTH: Tortorici, provincia di
Messina.
--
ITALIAN AMATEUR RADIO STATION
I T 9 T Z Z
ESCLUSIVAMENTE IN TELEGRAFIA
Sito web> www.webalice.it/it9tzz
QRZ.com page> www.qrz.com/db/it9tzz
DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE SUED BY FLORIDA COMPANY THAT WANTS TO BROADCAST RUSSIA'S SPUTNIK RADIO
A U.S. broadcasting company based in Florida is suing the Department of Justice for requiring that the media company register as a foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).
According to the Department of Justice, RM Broadcasting LLC, a company operating out of Jupiter, Florida, is required to sign up as a foreign agent because it broadcasts the Russian radio program Sputnik.
FARA requires that U.S. individuals or entities register with the government if they are doing political, public relations or financial work on behalf of foreign individuals or entities. The Department of Justice claimed that RM Broadcasting acted as a “publicity agent” and “information-service employee” for the Russian state-owned media company Rossiya Sevodnya. But RM Broadcasting argued that the arrangement was only a run-of-the-mill business deal that did not qualify as propaganda or promotion.
The dispute culminated in a lawsuit that was filed against the Department of Justice on October 19 in Florida’s federal court.
“RM does not create, provide, or have any direct control over the content of the programming, and does not possess the authority to exercise editorial control over the programming,” RM Broadcasting owner Arnold Ferolito’s lawyer Nicole Waid argued in a letter to the Department of Justice.
“RM does not act as an agent, representative, employee, or servant of Radio Sputnik, Rossiya Segodnya. The contractual relationship between the two parties solely consists of the availability of radio airtime between Radio Sputnik and an FCC licensee,” the letter continued.
In an email to Newsweek, Waid said that RM Broadcasting did not want to register as a foreign agent because the company "fundamentally disagrees with the government’s interpretation of the definition of an agent of a foreign government." She also cited privacy concerns.
"There are consequences to registering as an agent of a foreign government. First, you relinquish your 4th Amendment rights. The government has the ability to inspect your books and records at any time (including financial statements, emails, etc.). Second, the confidential terms of your business contracts are no longer confidential. The service agreements are posted online with all financial information regarding the business transaction (except bank account information regarding wire transfers)," Waid wrote. "Thus, registering can have a significant detrimental impact on business operations."
Nevertheless, court documents revealed that the company was doing a type of public relations work for Sputnik International. In a letter addressed to Sputnik representative Anton Anisimov, Ferolito wrote that the company wanted to provide "proper PR and advertising opportunities" for the Russian media outlet.
The broadcasting company shared with the Department of Justice copies of its contract with Sputnik. However, it denied the government's request to provide copies of all communications with Radio Sputnik and its parent company Rossiya Segodnya, which is owned and operated by the Russian government.
“We respectfully submit that this request is overbroad, unduly burdensome, and unnecessary,” the lawyer’s letter read.
Reston Translator, another U.S. company that broadcasts Sputnik, registered as a foreign agent last year. But unlike Reston Translator, which broadcasts radio programs, RM Broadcasting only buys airtime for radio stations and resells that airtime to companies like Sputnik. Legal experts said that subtle difference could be debated in court, because FARA law is not well defined.
The outcome of the case could have a significant impact on how FARA law is interpreted going forward, according to experts.
“The statute is so far-reaching and sweeping, and many terms are not well defined. This leaves room for interpretation. They are arguing about control, about whether there is agency and whether the Russian government can direct or control their activity. These inquiries are very fact-specific, and there is gray area, so it does give the parties an opportunity to argue their case,” Tessa Capeloto, a lawyer and expert on FARA law, told Newsweek. “Depending on what happens, it could impact how DOJ interprets control and agency, and it could impact future registrations and how DOJ applies the law.”
FARA was a little-known law until recently, when several high-profile cases snagged former Trump campaign officials for acting as unregistered foreign agents for Ukraine and Turkey. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump's former national security adviser Mike Flynn pleaded guilty to acting as an unregistered foreign agent for a Turkish company with ties to Turkey's government. In August, former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his associate Sam Patten were also charged for working on behalf of Ukraine.
Before 2018, only a handful of FARA violations had been prosecuted in the years since the law was enacted in 1938 to counter Nazi propaganda efforts. In 2016, an audit of FARA conducted by the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General found “widespread delinquencies” in compliance rates.
But FARA law has gained a new lease on life ever since special counsel Robert Mueller opened his investigation into foreign election interference in the aftermath of the 2016 elections, and foreign media companies have been thrust into the spotlight. In November 2017, Russian media companies RT and Sputnik officially registered as foreign agents in response to a request from the Department of Justice. In September 2018, the department demanded that two Chinese media companies do the same.
Nevertheless, many legal experts and law enforcement agents are confused about what constitutes a FARA violation and when someone is obligated to sign up as a foreign agent. In the case of RM Broadcast, the company's lawyers argued that it was not acting as a foreign agent by simply honoring a contract with Sputnik.
RM Broadcasting is ultimately a one-man show run by 75-year-old Arnold Ferolito. According to documents submitted to the Department of Justice, Ferolito is originally from the Bronx, New York, and now lives in semiretirement in Florida. His wife, Olga, is a naturalized U.S. citizen originally from Russia.
“Mr. Ferolito travels to Russia to visit family and for business purposes, but he does not participate in any activity that promotes Russian interests or values,” documents submitted by Ferolito’s lawyer read.
Last year, Ferolito brokered a deal with the AM radio station WZHF that made Sputnik the only program available on the Washington, D.C.-area station. That likely caught the attention of federal investigators who were looking to curb foreign influence through FARA enforcement.
But the U.S. government had its eye on RM Broadcasting for years before the deal with WZHF. In 2013, the Justice Department’s counterintelligence unit asked the company to describe all services it provided from Kremlin-linked entities. In that case, the government was interested in the company’s ties to the outlet Voice of Russia. RM Broadcasting’s relationship with Voice of Russia was terminated in 2014. (newsweek.com)
Glenn Hauser logs October 28-29-30, 2018
** AUSTRALIA. 9740, Oct 29 at 1457, `Spotlight Radio` in special English, S9-S6, outro ref to www.radioenglish.net and 1459 RBA sign-off until 1400 tomorrow. Spotlight uses English teaching as an evangelical ploy, to worm their way into learning minds. Het from another carrier overlaps just before 1500, i.e. AWR SRI LANKA, q.v. And, remember when 9740 was a signature frequency of BBCWS Singapore? Now in B-18, it`s not BBC anywhere, anywhen (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** BULGARIA. 11600, Oct 29 at 1454, a bit of Brother Scare until cutoff at 1455*, seeming same if not synch with 9330.1 WBCQ. SPC has registered this even frequency 24 hours, but also BRB with Kurdish via KCH until 1600. In A-18, EiBi had BS via Bulgaria instead at 1500-1655. How sad that the Bulgarians would rather broadcast BS than Radio Sofia/Bulgaria (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** CHINA [non]. 6180, Oct 30 at 0135, CRI English here at S9+10 discussing robotix, // 6020 via Albania. 6180 is really too strong and steady to be fro Kashgar as scheduled southward --- because HFCC B-18 has the answer: ALSO during the 01-02 hour, CRI English via HABana! 250 kW at 10 degrees (and also at 02-03 in Chinese). Must be a replacement for 9580, no longer on sked. CRI did not make such a change in B-17. This also must explain why I was hearing RHC Spanish on 6180, Oct 28 at 0135 --- Cuba was getting ready to relay China here (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** CUBA [and non]. 13605, Oct 29 at 1450, wall-of-noise jamming against nothing, as the incompetent Dentro Cuban Jamming Command keeps after Radio Martí where it should have known was last in use Oct 27, moving Oct 28 to 13820 as always in B-seasons. There, RM is S9+30 with no jamming audible. 11860 continues on M-F only from 1400v, but it`s under WON jamming (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1954, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** IRELAND. 3413-USB, Oct 29 at 0453, YL VOLMET VP S5 equal to band noise level, EiBi says it is Shannon between 22 and 10; 3413 could also bear ATC comms from San Francisco at any hour. They are far apart, but why risk sharing? One could be on LSB, e.g. (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** MADAGASCAR. 13670, Oct 28 at 1850, African Pathways Radio on MWV, S9+10 and better than expected despite losing 2 MHz of MUF in B-18 QSY ex-17640. Closing with updated frequency announcement of this at 18 and 11965 at 20, still 11825 at 04, to theme ``Don`t Worry, Be Happy`` (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1954, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** SPAIN. 9690, Oct 28 at 1854, REE `Tablero Deportivo` excited about sports scores, on reactivated B-frequency for North America, ex-17855; would be sufficient by now, except for het! From weaker off-frequency-to-low-side Voice of Nigeria, which also reactivated this frequency several weeks ago; a collision everyone should have anticipated despite Nigerian absence from HFCC; should be over by 2030 or 2100.
And guess what, Madagascar WV northerly in Russian is also listed on 9690 at 19-20! // 12030 REE is better, S9 and no QRM, tho aimed 110 degrees, exactly opposite from 9690, expanded scheduling for which calls for 15-23 Sat & Sun, but 19-04 on M-F/UT Tue-Sat. 12030 HFCC sked is different: Sat/Sun 15-24, M-F 16-24. I`m not sure all those times are exactly correct, as REE itself has put out conflicting info.
Still registered are a bunch of other frequencies, most of them surely alternates from four transmitters max, often fewer: 11685, 11940, 15110, 15390, 15500, 17715, 17755, 17855, 21620.
12030, Monday October 29 at 1800, REE starts new Russian broadcast after Spanish; as some Russian DXers had been notified to expect. I wonder if REE adjusts its antenna headings, as this one has been toward ME, with none toward Russia.
9690 is not on yet, just Nigeria on 9690-. While I`m busy with WORLD OF RADIO, John Figliozzi discovers 9690 with new English broadcast at 2300 Oct 29, and welcomed by several others in eastern North America. Supposedly on air until 0400, with any other languages or more English? By 0100 Oct 30 check here, has faded to JBA and hardly anything else on 31m, despite K-index of 0 and no storms (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** SRI LANKA. 15179.877V, Oct 29 at 1443, way off-frequency JBA; It`s AWR via Trincomalee, scheduled at 1430-1500, 125 kW at 45 degrees in KxF language which EiBi`s readme.txt shows means Manumanaw Karen / Kawyaw / Kayah: Myanmar with (10,000) speakers. How many have been converted to SDA already, and counting? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** SRI LANKA. 9739.918, Oct 29 at *1500, AWR theme after a few seconds overlap-hetting RB Australia, q.v. It`s Nepali until 1530, 125 kW, 15 degrees from Trincomalee. Are any of their frequencies accurate? Seems like originally they were; what happened? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** TURKEY. 12035.707, Oct 29 at 1408, VOT English to WEu and NAm beyond, has jumped off-frequency, while 24 hours earlier it was close to on 12035.0; S9+10 to S8. I start to measure it during music but miss the Question of the almost-over Month as a result; 1414 more filler with the multi-lingual ID reel; more music and 1424 sign-off with outdated claim to be on 15450 at 1230! IS plays until 1427:43 as some Turkic-language IDs start to be interspersed, but hopefully off in time to complete QSY before 1430 (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1954, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A. 347 kHz, Oct 29 at 0501, beacon AFK, which is 25 watts at
Nebraska City NE; I was tuned to 348.
389 kHz, Oct 29 at 0602, beacon CSB, which is 25 watts named `Harry Strunk` at Cambridge, Nebraska --- between McCook and Holdredge on US 6 in SW NE, not far from KS (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A [and non]. WORLD OF RADIO 1953 monitoring: confirmed Sunday October 28 at 2130 on WRMI 9955, and about 1 second behind on WRMI 7780 --- in separate playouts rather than a joining of Systems. 9955 has pulse jamming underneath --- tnx a lot Arnie, and 7780 with less noise. NOT confirmed UT Monday October 29 at 0130 on WRMI 5950, unlike a week ago during WRN English relay; rather more Radio Martí in Spanish; but anyway WRN has already made un-DST change a week too early, confirmed on their webcast, WOR at 0230 when 5950 is still SS. Confirmed on Area 51 webcast from 0300 UT Monday Oct 29; and at 0313 on VP WBCQ 5129.84. Not confirmed at 0330 UT Monday Oct 29 on WRMI because 9955 has faded to a JBA carrier; but confirmed on webcast.
WORLD OF RADIO 1954 contents: Antarctica, Bhutan, Brasil, Canada, China, Cuba, Greenland, Korea South, Madagascar, Nepal, New Zealand, Nigeria and non, North America, Northern Mariana Islands, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UK and non, USA, Vatican, Yemen non? and the propagation outlook.
WOR 1954 ready for first airings UT Tue October 30: confirmed at 0030 on WRMI 7730, good but fading down tho still sufficient by 0100. Immediate repeat at 0100 on WRMI 9955: no signal on outfaded 9955, but confirmed on webcast. By 0115 all three 7 MHz frequencies are also weakening. From next week, WOR should be even later into the dark, at 0200 UT Tuesday on 9955, while 7730 stays at 0030. Next:
2030 UT Tuesday WRMI 7780 to NE
1030 UT Wednesday WRMI 5950 to WNW
2100 UT Wednesday WRMI 9955 to SSE
2100 UT Wednesday WBCQ 7490v to WSW
0729 UT Saturday HLR 6190-CUSB Germany to WSW
1231 UT Saturday Unique 9265V via WINB to WSW
1531 UT Saturday HLR 9485-CUSB Germany to WSW
1700 UT Saturday WRN 5950 via WRMI to WNW
1930vUT Saturday WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional
0300vUT Sunday WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional [nominal 0315-]
1130 UT Sunday HLR 7265-CUSB Germany to WSW
2130 UT Sunday WRMI 7780 to NE
2230 UT Sunday WRMI 9955 to SSE
0230 UT Monday WRN 5950 via WRMI to WNW [? not last week]
0400vUT Monday Area 51 5130v via WBCQ to WSW
0430 UT Monday WRMI 9955 to SSE
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
** U S A. 5950, UT Tue Oct 30 at 0030, WRMI is back to English, presumably WRN with Israel Radio, ex-2330 as un-DST shifts have already been made, obviously for the convenience of Londoners, not Americans. It`s totally unclear just when 5950 is going to be with WRN and when with alternative programming on ``W-Radio-Martí-I`` (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
UNIDENTIFIED. 386 kHz, Oct 29 at 0602, beacon with dash and YV. Can`t find any listing. There is a QV at Yorkton Sask on 385, so maybe I miscopied as I was dozing off (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
UNIDENTIFIED. 11840, Oct 29 at 1453, S9 carrier with some pulsing quick cut-outs, soon off to stay. Could it be a test from International Radio for Disaster Relief, from SMG VATICAN, the only thing allowed in HFCC, as Cuba doesn`t count? Would not be on 11840 at this hour, anyway (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
UNIDENTIFIED. 15156.00-LSB, Oct 29 at 1447, 2-way in Spanish INTRUDERS (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)
This report dispatched at 0419 UT October 30
Ora legale, stop al cambio. I Paesi Ue prendono tempo
due mesi dalla proposta della Commissione europea di abolire fin dall’ottobre dell'anno prossimo il cambio stagionale dell’ora, una maggioranza di Paesi membri è dell’avviso di rinviare l’eventuale entrata in vigore di una misura che rimane controversa. Durante una riunione ministeriale a Graz, in Austria, molti governi hanno fatto propria la proposta della presidenza austriaca dell’Unione europea di rinviare questa soluzione, eventualmente al 2021.
«Una maggioranza di Paesi è a favore dell’abolizione del cambio di ora, tre sono scettici e uno ha paura di creare un’Europa a macchia di leopardo», con troppe differenze tra i Paesi membri, ha detto il ministro dei Trasporti austriaco Norbert Hofer. La proposta dell’esecutivo comunitario prevede di abolire il doppio cambio di ora durante l’anno, lasciando al singolo Paese dell’Unione europea la libertà di optare per l’ora legale o per l’ora solare una volta per tutte.
In questo contesto, i ministri dei Trasporti, responsabili del dossier, hanno fatto propria la proposta austriaca di rinviare l’eventuale decisione, possibilmente di due anni. Da Graz, il ministro Hofer ha spiegato tra le altre cose che il settore aereo avrebbe bisogno di almeno 18 mesi per organizzarsi. Proprio questo fine settimana, nella notte tra sabato e domenica, le lancette degli orologi sono state spostate indietro di una ora per adattarsi all’ora solare.
La Commissione europea avrebbe voluto che una decisione finale tra ora legale e ora solare fosse presa nell’aprile dell’anno scorso perché il cambio dell’ottobre successivo fosse l’ultimo. Da Graz, la commissaria ai Trasporti Violeta Bulc ha ammesso che ci vorrà più tempo. La proposta comunitaria è giunta dopo che una maggioranza di persone in un sondaggio volontario si è espressa contro il cambio di ora, in difesa degli animali, dei ritmi biologici e in assenza di reali risparmi energetici.
Alcuni Paesi particolarmente integrati tra loro, come il Lussemburgo, il Belgio e l’Olanda hanno già detto che comunque sia avrebbero mantenuto la stessa ora, nel caso dell’abolizione del cambio di ora. Oggi lo stesso governo lussemburghese ha spiegato che sarebbe «catastrofico» se anche la Francia e la Germania non mantenessero la stessa ora. Ogni giorno miglialia di lavoratori trasnfrontalieri francesi, tedeschi o belgi si recano nel Granducato per lavorare.
Dal canto suo, il governo danese ha spiegato sempre oggi che sarà necessario nel piccolo Paese avere un dibattito pubblico sull’opportunità o meno di abolire il cambio d’ora. Più in generale, scelte difficili vi saranno nei paesi del Nord Europa con grandi differenze tra Nord e Sud. Non per altro i tre Paesi scettici sono la Svezia, la Gran Bretagna e la Polonia. In Estonia, vi è consenso sull’abolizione del cambio di ora, ma si discute ancora se preferire l’ora legale o l’ora solare. (Il Sole 24 Ore)
Agenda DX 30/10/2018
ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio Tawantisuyo, Perù 6175 Khz (1948)
Radio Macarena, Colombia 5975 khz (1974)
BBC Limassol, Cipro 1332 Khz (1956)
Radio Andina, Perù 4996 Khz (1961)
Radio Moldova (1930)
Radio Tawantisuyo, Perù 6175 Khz (1948)
Radio Macarena, Colombia 5975 khz (1974)
BBC Limassol, Cipro 1332 Khz (1956)
Radio Andina, Perù 4996 Khz (1961)
Radio Moldova (1930)
lunedì 29 ottobre 2018
Radio Exterior de España
SPAIN, 9690, Radio Exterior de España, Noblejas, 1857-1908, 29-10, eclipsed by World Christian Broadcast., Madagascar, with strong signal on the same frequency with program in Russian REE only audible with tuning music, 1857-1859, before WCB, Madagascar signing on.
11940, weak, news, Spanish at 1901
12030, weak, news, Spanish, at 1901. Earlier at 1700 fair to good signal.
11685, nothing here at 1900 and nothing at 1700.
Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spain
W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Forecast #2018-302
Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
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https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#302 Issued Monday October 29, 2018 at 1500 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.3 68.3 67.9
There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) lower than 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 13 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 178 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
7 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+23 & +7 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
349 & 292 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then
minor deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#302 Issued Monday October 29, 2018 at 1500 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.3 68.3 67.9
There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) lower than 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 13 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 178 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
7 & 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+23 & +7 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
349 & 292 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then
minor deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 31, 2018- steady.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
Ascolti AM Treviso 28-29 ottobre
6070 28/10 1000 Radio DARC, AUT-Moosbrunn Px Dx D 45544
9610 28/10 1003 AWR Europe, Nauen Px "Obiettivo DX" It 55555
9610 29/10 1246 AWR KSDA Guam, Agat Mx Px rel. M 35433
9650 29/10 1247 Voice of Korea, Kujang Px J 25422
9700 29/10 1253 Radio New Zealand, Rangitaiki Px ID 1358 UTC E 35443
9740 29/10 1400 Reach Beyond Australia, Jingle ID E Px Ben 45444
12025 29/10 1628 All India Radio, Panaji Px Hin 34433
12030 29/10 1630 Radio Exterior Espana, Noblejas PX "Asia hoy" Es 43444
12095 29/10 1631 BBC WS Radio, MDG-Talata-Volo Nx E 45444
73 da N. Marabello
QTH Treviso, Italia
RX: SONY ICF SW7600G
Ant.: esterna VHF orizzontale 230 gradi
9610 28/10 1003 AWR Europe, Nauen Px "Obiettivo DX" It 55555
9610 29/10 1246 AWR KSDA Guam, Agat Mx Px rel. M 35433
9650 29/10 1247 Voice of Korea, Kujang Px J 25422
9700 29/10 1253 Radio New Zealand, Rangitaiki Px ID 1358 UTC E 35443
9740 29/10 1400 Reach Beyond Australia, Jingle ID E Px Ben 45444
12025 29/10 1628 All India Radio, Panaji Px Hin 34433
12030 29/10 1630 Radio Exterior Espana, Noblejas PX "Asia hoy" Es 43444
12095 29/10 1631 BBC WS Radio, MDG-Talata-Volo Nx E 45444
73 da N. Marabello
QTH Treviso, Italia
RX: SONY ICF SW7600G
Ant.: esterna VHF orizzontale 230 gradi
Propagation outlook from Boulder
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 October 2018
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during
the reporting period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 67 pfu
observed at 26/2110 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period observed early on 22 Oct. Solar wind was at nominal
levels through the period ranging from approximately 300-430 km/s
with total field between 1 nT and 8 nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 October-24 November 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 04-09 Nov and again on 12-16 Nov
due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 29-31 Oct, 03-07 Nov, and 09-11 Nov with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-10-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Oct 29 69 8 3
2018 Oct 30 69 12 4
2018 Oct 31 69 10 4
2018 Nov 01 69 5 2
2018 Nov 02 69 5 2
2018 Nov 03 69 20 5
2018 Nov 04 69 15 4
2018 Nov 05 68 15 4
2018 Nov 06 70 15 4
2018 Nov 07 70 8 3
2018 Nov 08 70 5 2
2018 Nov 09 70 12 4
2018 Nov 10 70 8 3
2018 Nov 11 70 10 4
2018 Nov 12 70 5 2
2018 Nov 13 70 5 2
2018 Nov 14 70 5 2
2018 Nov 15 70 5 2
2018 Nov 16 70 5 2
2018 Nov 17 70 5 2
2018 Nov 18 69 5 2
2018 Nov 19 69 5 2
2018 Nov 20 68 5 2
2018 Nov 21 68 5 2
2018 Nov 22 68 5 2
2018 Nov 23 68 5 2
2018 Nov 24 68 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 October 2018
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during
the reporting period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 67 pfu
observed at 26/2110 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period observed early on 22 Oct. Solar wind was at nominal
levels through the period ranging from approximately 300-430 km/s
with total field between 1 nT and 8 nT.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 October-24 November 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 04-09 Nov and again on 12-16 Nov
due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 29-31 Oct, 03-07 Nov, and 09-11 Nov with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-10-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Oct 29 69 8 3
2018 Oct 30 69 12 4
2018 Oct 31 69 10 4
2018 Nov 01 69 5 2
2018 Nov 02 69 5 2
2018 Nov 03 69 20 5
2018 Nov 04 69 15 4
2018 Nov 05 68 15 4
2018 Nov 06 70 15 4
2018 Nov 07 70 8 3
2018 Nov 08 70 5 2
2018 Nov 09 70 12 4
2018 Nov 10 70 8 3
2018 Nov 11 70 10 4
2018 Nov 12 70 5 2
2018 Nov 13 70 5 2
2018 Nov 14 70 5 2
2018 Nov 15 70 5 2
2018 Nov 16 70 5 2
2018 Nov 17 70 5 2
2018 Nov 18 69 5 2
2018 Nov 19 69 5 2
2018 Nov 20 68 5 2
2018 Nov 21 68 5 2
2018 Nov 22 68 5 2
2018 Nov 23 68 5 2
2018 Nov 24 68 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)
B18 schedule: ZBC Zanzibar Broadcasting Corporation
0300-0600 on 6015 DOL 050 kW / non-dir to CeAf Swahili
1500-2100 on 11735 DOL 050 kW / non-dir to CeAf Swahili, including
1800-1810 on 11735 DOL 050 kW / non-dir to CeAf English Sun-Thu
1500-2100 on 11735 DOL 050 kW / non-dir to CeAf Swahili, including
1800-1810 on 11735 DOL 050 kW / non-dir to CeAf English Sun-Thu
B18 schedule: Voice of Africa
0600-0630 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf Tigrinya (inactive)
0630-0700 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf Amharic (inactive)
0700-0800 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf Swahili (inactive)
0800-0900 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf English (inactive)
1600-1700 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Swahili, ex French
1700-1800 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Amharic, ex English
1800-1900 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Hausa
0630-0700 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf Amharic (inactive)
0700-0800 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf Swahili (inactive)
0800-0900 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 110 deg to EaAf English (inactive)
1600-1700 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Swahili, ex French
1700-1800 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Amharic, ex English
1800-1900 on 9505 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Hausa
B18 schedule: Radio Omdurman
0200-1600 on 7205 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Arabic
1900-2200 on 7205 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Arabic
1900-2200 on 7205 ALF 100 kW / 210 deg to CeAf Arabic
Agenda DX 29/10/2018
ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio Mosca (servizio estero), Russia 7310 Khz (1929)
Radio Rioja, Perù 5045 Khz (1976)
Radio Guarani, Paraguay (19in SW) 6175 Khz (1955)
Radio Mosca (servizio estero), Russia 7310 Khz (1929)
Radio Rioja, Perù 5045 Khz (1976)
Radio Guarani, Paraguay (19in SW) 6175 Khz (1955)
domenica 28 ottobre 2018
Stations heard in Friol
ARMENIA, 4810, Armenian Public Radio, Gavar/Yerevan, 1550-1556, 26-10, Greek, comments. 25322.
BAHREIN, 9745, Radio Bahrein, Abu Hayan, 1346-1358, 26-10, Arabic songs. 23322.
DENMARK, 5840, World Music Radio, Randers, 1518-1543, 26-10, pop songs, id. “World Music Radio”. 25322.
GERMANY
5920, HCJB Germany, Weenermoor, 1531-1540, 26-10, German, comments. 25422.
6005, Short Wave Service, Kall Krekel, 1520-1527, 26-10, German, comments. 25322.
6006, Radio Belarus via Short Wave Service, Kall Krekel, 0931-0945, 28-10, German, comments, id. “Radio Belarus”. 14321.
6085, Radio Mi Amigo, Kall Krekel, 1507-1520, 26-10, pop songs in English, id. “Radio Mi Amigo, Mi Amigo”. 35433.
6150, Radio Marabu, Dattlen, 1509-1521- 26-10, pop songs in English, German, comments. 35433.
6190, Hamburger LokalRadio, Gohren, *0600-0700 , 27-10, id. “This is Hamburger LokalRadio”, English, program “Media Network Plus”, at 0630 Glenn Hauser’s program “World of Radio nº 1953”. 15321.
9485, Radio City via Hamburger LokalRadio, Gohren, 1235-1247, 27-10, pop songs in English, male, English, comments, id. “Radio City, the station of the cars”.
EQUATORIAL GUINEA, 5005, Radio Nacional, Bata, *0504-0558, 26-10, open with non stop Afropop songs. 15321.
SUDAN, 7205, Sudan Radio, Al Aitahab, 1513-1522, 26-10, Arabic songs and comments. 25322.
SWEDEN, 6035 kHz, Radio Nord Revival, 1657-1750, 26-10, songs, id at 1658:"Radio Nord Revival", music, Swedish, male, comments. songs, comments, at 1700 interference from Voice of America on 6040 kHz. 1726 song in English, comments in Swedish, id. at 1739: "Radio Nord Revival", 1750 song in German by woman. SINPO 22322
Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spain
Logs in Friol
Tecsun S-8800, cable antenna, 8 meters
W4HM Daily HF Radio Propagation Forecast #2018-301
Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#301 Issued Sunday October 28, 2018 at 1530 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.9 69.3 69.0
There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) lower than 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 12 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 177 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of
1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
6 & 0,
which was at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+16 & +2 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
439 & 339 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 28, 2018- steady.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then
minor deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
->->->W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent<- <- <-
#301 Issued Sunday October 28, 2018 at 1530 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was very low.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were
68.9 69.3 69.0
There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) lower than 70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.
There had been 12 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
In 2018 there had been 177 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of
1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0.
The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
6 & 0,
which was at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between
+16 & +2 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
439 & 339 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 28, 2018- steady.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 29, 2018- steady then
minor deterioration.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 30, 2018- minor
deterioration.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.