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Published on Friday September 15, 2017 at 1530
UTC
Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions
on Thursday September 14, 2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at a moderate
geomagnetic storming level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers
were 72.6 74.2 73.5.
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 11.
On Tuesday September 5, 2017 the daily SSN reached
122, the highest value in a very long time.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24 and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months
will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will
probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar
cycle 25 began.
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Officially there was 1 earth facing sun spot group
(SSG).
Directly earth aimed (geoeffective) sunspot group
(SSG) #12680 was located near N09E14 with a simple magnetic signature. It was
capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare.
There
was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG)
near
N13E45.
There was no small in size C class solar flare or
larger.
There was no directly earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no partially earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective)
coronal mass ejection (CME) related high latitude energetic proton storm >10
MeV (10+0). The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background
level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at an S1 level. But barring a new blast of
energetic protons the proton storm should come to an end in the next 1-2
days.
The high latitude absorption via earths D layer is
called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic
electrons and protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the
equatorial ring current.
There was no earth aimed (geoeffective) solar
flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO).
No earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic
filament eruption occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K
index (Kp) was at moderate geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions
of
2 2 1 2 3 6 4 4.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K
index was at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
2 2 2 2 3 5 4 3.
The K(p) geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9-
extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A
index (Ap) ranged between
67 and 4
which was at major geomagnetic storming to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices
are-
0-7- quiet
8-15- unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just
got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux
was at A6.52.
The 24
hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at approximately
-18 nT.
The larger the negative value the further
south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar
regions.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-53
and -23 nT.
And by the way on Friday September 8, 2017 the Dst
fell to a whopping -142 nT, the lowest value in a very long
time.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind
speed ranged between
718
and 346 km/s.
It was under the influence of the below mentioned
coronal hole (CH).
There
was 1 recurrent medium in size earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole
(CH) #824 (#820).
Its
associated high speed solar (HSS) wind stream was attached to earths geomagnetic
field and impacting earths ionosphere in a negative manor in the form of
moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming conditions.
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed
without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible, something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200
or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for
routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting
mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than
7 for several days consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid
latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days
consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1
for several days consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst
index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the
equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index
tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and
indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF
signals.
12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units
below zero and trending towards zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater
than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for
several days consecutively.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data
from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other U.S. government entities,
educational institutions and some private individuals, to produce my daily
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data is gathered and made
public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including
mine).
However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella,
W4HM.