Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion.
If you find this
"not for profit" daily HF radio wave propagation forecast and solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussion useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities,
feel free to drop me a line and let me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel free without prior permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute
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give me credit for it.
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.
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#233
Issued on Monday August 21, 2017 at 1930 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition and
trend-
A deteriorated state.
An improving state.
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and
very poor at day, 40-30 (41-25)
meters- fair at night and poor at
day, 20-17 (22-16) meters-
fair at night and fair at
day, 15 (13) meters- poor
at night and fair at
day, 12-10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost
daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10
(11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths
via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but
not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans
equatorial propagation (TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16)
meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced
based on the SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when
necessary.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up
at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB
RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF
radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and
applicable by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave
propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring
equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Sunday August 20,
2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at an
unsettled level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 86.4
86.0 85.4.
These are some of the highest daily SFI numbers in quite a
while.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was
44.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring
unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
As we move forward towards the next solar
minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily
SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months
will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24
to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also
forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to
the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult
to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Officially
there were 2 earth facing sun spot groups (SSG).
Sunspot group (SSG)
#12671 located near N10W03 with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic signature
capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare, a moderate in size M
class solar flare and an isolated X class solar flare.
Newly risen
sunspot group (SSG) #12672 located near N06E75 with a complex beta magnetic
signature capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an
isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.
There was 0 unofficial and
as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG).
There was 1
moderate in size M class solar flare, an
M1.1,
and 4 small in size
C class solar flares,
C9.4,
C2.9,
C1.8,
C1.0.
On Monday
August 21, 2017 there was 1 small in size C class solar flare,
an
C5.9.
There was 0 earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass
ejection (CME).
No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass
ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm occurred
(polar cap absorption).
No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) solar
flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO) occurred.
No directly
earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption
occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
minor geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
4 5 3 2 2 3 3 3.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6-
moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum
and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
39 and 9,
which
was at minor geomagnetic storming conditions to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15
unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99-
major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on
Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged energetic proton flux
was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged
background x-ray flux was at C9.45.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical
component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-0.41 nT
south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time
index (Dst) ranged between
-34 and -16 nT.
The 24 hour period
maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
734 and 585
km/s.
There was a recurrent very large in size earth facing northern
hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #820 (#815).
It’s attached high speed
solar wind stream (HSS) was impacting earths geomagnetic field in a negative
manner in the form of minor geomagnetic storming conditions.
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
