Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion.
If you find this
"not for profit" daily HF radio wave propagation forecast and solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussion useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities,
feel free to drop me a line and let me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel free without prior permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast
and solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
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solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion can be found in my Facebook
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and
at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather but without
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It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group hosted by
contesting on line (COL), so you have to sign up by using an existing email
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And last but not least I also post some
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Twitter account at https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
.
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#232
Issued on Sunday August 20, 2017 at 1430 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition and
trend-
A deteriorated state,
A steady state,
which means that
HF radio wave propagation conditions are neither deteriorating further nor
improving.
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
80-60
(75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day, 40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at
night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at
day, 15 (13) meters- poor
at night and fair at
day, 12-10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost
daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10
(11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths
via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but
not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans
equatorial propagation (TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16)
meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced
based on the SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if and when
necessary.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up
at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB
RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF
radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and
applicable by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave
propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring
equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Saturday August 19,
2017-
Solar activity was high.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at an
active geomagnetic level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers
were 84.9 86.8 88.6.
These are the highest daily SFI numbers in quite a
while.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN)
was 33.
In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring
unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
As we move forward towards the next solar
minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily
SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months
will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24
to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also
forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to
the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult
to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Officially
there was 1 earth facing sun spot group (SSG).
Sunspot group (SSG) #12671
located near N10E10 with a complex beta-gamma magnetic signature capable of
producing a small in size C class solar flare and a moderate in size M class
solar flare.
There were 2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth
facing sunspot groups (SSG) near
N05E84,
S14W13.
There were 11
small in size C class solar
flares,
C7.0,
C4.4,
C3.5,
C3.1,
C2.9,
C2.0,
C1.7,
C1.4,
C1.3,
C1.1,
C1.0.
On
Sunday August 20, 2017 there was 1 moderate in size M class solar flare and 2
small in size C class solar
flares,
M1.2,
C2.9,
C1.8.
There may have been 1
earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME) but am awaiting for the latest solar
imagery to determine if it was (geoeffective) directly earth aimed.
No
earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid
latitude
energetic proton storm occurred (polar cap absorption).
No
solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO) occurred.
There
was no earth facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour
period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at active to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions of
4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4.
The Kp geomagnetic
indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
32
and 12,
which was at minor geomagnetic storming conditions to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour
period averaged background x-ray flux was at M1.2.
The 24 hour period
averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was
at
-0.31 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
-51 and -24 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
728 and 548 km/s.
There was a recurrent very large in
size earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #820 (#815).
It’s attached high speed solar wind stream (HSS) was impacting earths
geomagnetic field in a negative manner in the form of minor geomagnetic storming
conditions.
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION
INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation
indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore
the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved.
Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance
as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have
to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency
radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.)
Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.)
A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily
sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10,
fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3
hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high
latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic
protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels
greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of
high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering
of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or
better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a
geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive
number is best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks
with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and
indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.)
Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
