Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and
HF radio wave propagation forecast.
If you find this "not for profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities feel free
to drop me a line and letting me know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
.
Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for
profit"
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio
wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
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propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at
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And last but not least I also post some snippets of solar,
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.
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#224
Issued on Saturday August 12, 2017 at 1530 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
The HF radio wave propagation conditions are in a
steady state, which means that radio wave propagation conditions are neither
improving or deteriorating.
But deteriorating HF radio wave propagation
conditions could begin later today or tomorrow.
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO
WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor to fair at night and very
poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair to good at night and poor at
day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair to good at night and poor to fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair at day,
12(11)
meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost daily during the
northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10 (11) meter bands
will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E
(Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much
longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
propagation (TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15)
meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and fair to good at day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at
day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
Received
RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good-
S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter Band
Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80-> 75
60->
60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20-> 22,
19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced
based on the NSA_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the state of Florida USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when
necessary. And I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via
remoted radio receivers around on every continent of the globe and tweak if and
when necessary.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received
are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up
at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB
RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF
radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and
applicable by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave
propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring
equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Friday August 11,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
71.4 69.8 70.4.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 11. We could
be headed for yet another period with no (SSN) daily sunspot numbers, the big
goose egg.
In 2017 officially there were 57 days with a daily sunspot
number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now
unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily
sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is
unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum
between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will
steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see
a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the
weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton
type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot
magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar
cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Officially
there was 1 newly risen and/or emerged and/or existing earth facing official sun
spot group (SSG).
Recurrent earth facing sunspot group #12670 (#12665)
located near S06W58 with a simple alpha magnetic signature.
There was 0
unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group
(SSG).
There was 0 small in size C class or larger solar flare.
No
earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic
proton storm occurred (polar cap absorption).
No solar flare related
x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO)
occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions
of
1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6-
moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum
and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
12 and 4,
which
was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic
indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor
geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere
just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period
averaged energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10
MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at
A4.95.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at
+3.86 nT north.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-7 and +9 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
453 and 347 km/s.
There was a
small earth facing trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #819. It’s connected (HSS)
high speed solar wind stream will begin impacting earth’s geomagnetic field in a
negative manner in the form ionosphere disturbances in approximately 1
day.
There was a large and growing earth facing northern hemisphere
coronal hole #820.
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The
propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property.
Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained
herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission
in advance as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following
indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global
high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens
rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of
0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher
best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable
formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24
hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are
best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths,
fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is
best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.)
Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively,
greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.)
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
