:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Aug 28 0402 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 21 - 27 August 2017
Solar activity ranged from very low to low
levels. Very low levels
were observed on 26 Aug while low levels were
observed from 21-25
Aug and again on 27 Aug. Regions 2671 (N11, L=305,
class/area
Fkc/430 on 21 Aug) and 2672 (N08, L=227, class/area Dao/270 on
22
Aug) were the only regions on the visible disk and were responsible
for
a total of 34 C-class flares between the two. The largest events
of the
period were a C6/1f at 27/1516 UTC from Region 2671, a C5/Sf
at 21/0316 UTC
from Region 2672, and another C5/1n at 25/0727 UTC
with an associated 100 sfu
Tenflare from Region 2672. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed during
the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels from 22-27 Aug while very high
levels were observed on
21 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 52,010 pfu
observed at
21/1725 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet
to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels. The period began under the waning influence of
a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speed
was decreasing from approximately 700 km/s to around 580 km/s
by
late on 21 Aug with total field values near 4 nT. By
approximately
21/2100 UTC, total field began to increase to 9 nT while the
Bz
component deflected southward briefly to -8 nT. Solar wind
speed
increased once again to near 675 km/s at 22/0655 UTC before
slowly
decreasing once more. A prolonged period of southward Bz
was
observed between 22/1840-24/1310 UTC reaching a maximum of -6 nT.
The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21
Aug, quiet
to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 Aug, and
unsettled to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Aug. Solar
wind speed continued to
decline to around 330 km/s by early on 25
Aug. Another enhancement in total
field was observed at the end of
the period to 10 nT with another prolonged
period of southward Bz
after 27/1200 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded
with quiet to
unsettled conditions on 24 and 27 Aug while quiet conditions
were
observed on 25-26 Aug.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 28 AUGUST-23 SEPTEMBER 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period. There is a slight
chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 28 Aug-02 Sep as
Region 2672
transits across the visible disk.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at mostly high levels throughout the
forecast period
due to recurrent CH HSS influence. A decrease to moderate
levels is
expected on 30-31 Aug, 08 Sep, and again on 13 Sep due to
electron
redistribution associated with the arrival of the CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 28 Aug, 30 Aug-02 Sep, 08-09 Sep, 13-17 Sep, and 23
Sep
with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 31 Aug and
13-16
Sep and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 14-15
Sep
due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 28 0402 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-08-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Aug 28 78
10 3
2017 Aug 29 78 8 3
2017 Aug 30
78 15 4
2017 Aug 31 77 25 5
2017
Sep 01 75 18 4
2017 Sep 02 74
15 3
2017 Sep 03 74 8 3
2017 Sep 04
72 5 2
2017 Sep 05 72 5 2
2017
Sep 06 72 5 2
2017 Sep 07 75
5 2
2017 Sep 08 80 10 3
2017 Sep 09
85 8 3
2017 Sep 10 85 5 2
2017
Sep 11 85 5 2
2017 Sep 12 85
5 2
2017 Sep 13 85 25 5
2017 Sep 14
85 30 6
2017 Sep 15 88 30 6
2017
Sep 16 88 25 5
2017 Sep 17 88
12 4
2017 Sep 18 88 8 3
2017 Sep 19
85 8 3
2017 Sep 20 85 5 2
2017
Sep 21 82 5 2
2017 Sep 22 80
5 2
2017 Sep 23 78 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
