Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and
HF radio wave propagation forecast.
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daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities feel free
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#210
Issued on Saturday July 29, 2017 at 1530 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are in a
deteriorated state.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and
very poor at day, 40-30 (41-25) meters-
fair at night and poor at
day, 20-17 (22-16)
meters- fair at night and fair at
day, 15 (13) meters- poor
at night and fair at
day, 12-10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
Keep in mind that almost
daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 10
(11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths
via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up
favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but
not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans
equatorial propagation (TEP).
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30
(41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very
poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor
at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
We are now
firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF
radio wave propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at
day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstice.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP HF radio
wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s
but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the public.
And
though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the NSA_CAP,
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the state of Florida USA
and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. And I also check
global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio receivers around
on every continent of the globe and tweak if and when necessary.
The
hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels
received are based on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF
shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts
(100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array antenna.
Please keep in
mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Friday July 28,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at an unsettled level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers
were 69.9 69.5 70.1.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for
approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, the daily < 70 solar flux numbers
are occurring unusually early.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN)
was 0.
That was day 3 in a row with no visible sunspots.
In 2017
officially there were 55 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was 0 newly risen and/or emerged and/or existing earth facing official sun spot
group (SSG).
(((((However continued active recurrent (which means that it
has faced earth during the previous rotation of the sun and will again) sunspot
group #2665 will rise above the east limb of the sun beginning on Monday July
31, 2017. It could wreak havoc on earths geomagnetic field in the form of solar
flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), solar fade outs, energetic proton storms
and geomagnetic storming.)))))
There was 0 unofficial and as of yet
unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG).
There was no small in size C
class or larger solar flare.
No earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME)
related high latitude energetic proton storm occurred (polar cap
absorption).
No solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO)
occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions
of
2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6-
moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum
and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
8 and 3,
which
was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic
indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor
geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere
just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period
averaged energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10
MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at
B1.56.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-0.50 nT south.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-15 and -4 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
470 and 420 km/s.
There was an
earth facing southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #817.
(((((It’s
associated high speed solar wind stream (HSS) could wreak havoc on earth’s
geomagnetic field in the form of geomagnetic storming conditions in a couple of
more
days.)))))
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GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
