Earlier last week the sun’s surface looked clear. There were no sunspots at all
and the solar flux index remained in the low 70s. However, settled geomagnetic
conditions helped make up for this with the K-index often at zero.
Daytime D-layer absorption
didn’t really help with the summer HF doldrums, but there were highlights in the
evening with 40m and 20m becoming more lively as the sun started to set. For
example, Doug, ZP6CW in Paraguay was workable with five watts CW on 20m on
Wednesday evening and 40m was alive with signals from around Europe. The Reverse
Beacon Network is often a guide to DX stations calling CQ, many of which go
unanswered.
However, this weekend, the 8th
and 9th, may see unsettled geomagnetic conditions again as a large coronal hole
became geocentric on Thursday. This may allow solar material to escape from the
Sun and head towards Earth. If so, the subsequent geomagnetic storming may see
the K-index rise this weekend, with the possibility of an initial ionospheric
enhancement and then subdued maximum useable frequencies, auroral conditions and
noisy bands thereafter.
Next week, NOAA predicts the solar flux index will remain in the low
70s, although a new sunspot was just appearing over the south-east limb of the
sun on Thursday. NOAA predicts geomagnetic conditions may be very unsettled
again from Thursday the 13th.
The 20, 30 and 40m bands
remain the best for F2-layer DX fun, with the HF bands also benefitting from
occasional sporadic E openings. However, these may become slightly less
prevalent as we move into mid and late July.
VHF and up:
Humid weather with a weak
ridge of high pressure can often bring some summer tropo conditions and this
week will continue to offer occasional lifts, especially overnight.
There is a sign in the models
for some slow-moving areas of low pressure during the week and these may bring a
risk of thundery downpours, but equally the opportunity of some good rain
scatter on the GHz bands. There are always plenty of aircraft over Europe, so
look for aircraft reflection contacts on 1.3 and 2.3GHz up to 800km to work some
new squares and make the bands more interesting.
With no major meteor showers
peaking in the upcoming week, we’ll be relying on sporadic E on the low VHF
bands. The season is still giving some occasional good days from the UK,
although the present period of rather weak jet streams, which are often a good
indicator of where sporadic E may develop, means that the sporadic E events may
be limited both in scope and the highest band available.
We are past this Moon cycle’s
apogee again but with minimum declination occurring only yesterday it is still
negative for the upcoming week. Losses will continue to be high, so EME
opportunities will be short.