:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jul 17 0154 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 10 - 16 July 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels on 12
Jul, low levels on 10,
11, 13, 15 and 16 Jul and moderate (R1-Minor) levels
on 14 Jul.
Region 2665 (S06, L=111, class/area Ekc/710 on 09 Jul) produced
a
majority of the flare activity. However, new Region 2667 (N12,
L=155,
class/area Axx/010 on 14 Jul) produced all of the C-class
activity on 13 Jul
including a C8 x-ray event with a Type II radio
emission (770 km/s). The
largest event of the summary period was a
long-duration M2/1n flare from
Region 2665 observed at 14/0209 UTC.
Associated with this event was a
Tenflare (130 sfu) and Type IV
radio emission. At 14/0125 UTC, LASCO C2
imagery detected an
asymmetric halo CME that was analyzed and modelled to
reveal an
Earth-directed component with a likely arrival at Earth on 16 Jul.
A greater than 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton
event
(S1-Minor) began at 14/0900 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 22
pfu at 14/2320
UTC and ended at 15/1115 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate flux levels then entire summary period.
A maximum flux of
942 pfu was observed at 14/1750 UTC.
Geomagnetic
field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active
intervals, on 10-11 Jul due to waning effects from a
positive polarity CH
HSS. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of about
650 km/s early on 11 Jul and
steadily decreased through the summary
period to reach a low speed of 287
km/s at 16/0446 UTC. Quiet levels
were recorded from mid-day 11 Jul through
early on 16 Jul.
At 16/0515 UTC, an interplanetary shock associated with
the arrival
of the 14 Jul CME, was observed in DSCOVR solar wind data.
Solar
wind speeds sharply increased from around 320 km/s to 502
km/s.
Solar wind speeds then slowly increased to a peak value of 643
km/s
observed at 16/2037 UTC. Total field strength values reached 28 nT
at
16/0836 UTC while the Bz component was sustained at around -23 nT
for a
prolonged period following the shock arrival. Solar wind
density reached a
peak of around 56 particles/cubic cm following the
shock and the phi angle
became highly variable after 16/0515 UTC.
Phi angle settled into a mostly
positive (away) solar sector after
16/1100 UTC. The geomagnetic field was
quiet until 16/0601 UTC when
a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed (40 nT
at Hartland
magnetometer) indicating the arrival of the 14 Jul CME.
The
geomagnetic field responded with active to G1 and G2 (Minor
to
Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels through the remainder of 16 Jul.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 17 JULY - 12 AUGUST
2017
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
flare
activity (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) through 19 Jul when Region
2665
exits the visible disk. Very low to low levels are expected
from
20-28 Jul. A chance for R1-R2 activity is possible with the return
of
old Region 2665 from 29 Jul - 12 Aug.
There is a chance for an S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm through 19
Jul due to potential significant
flare activity from Region 2665. No
proton events are expected from 20-28
Jul. A chance for S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storms is possible with the
return of old Region
2665 from 29 Jul - 12 Aug.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be reach high levels
on 19-20 Jul due to influence from
the 14 Jul CME. Normal to moderate levels
are expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic
field activity is expected to be at G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels on 17 Jul due to continued
CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are
expected on 21-22 Jul
and again on 05-06 Aug, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels
likely on 05 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the
outlook
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jul 17 0154 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-07-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Jul 17 85
30 6
2017 Jul 18 80 12 4
2017 Jul 19
74 8 3
2017 Jul 20 74 8 3
2017
Jul 21 74 15 4
2017 Jul 22 74
12 4
2017 Jul 23 74 5 2
2017 Jul 24
75 5 2
2017 Jul 25 75 5 2
2017
Jul 26 75 5 2
2017 Jul 27 75
5 2
2017 Jul 28 75 5 2
2017 Jul 29
90 5 2
2017 Jul 30 90 5 2
2017
Jul 31 90 5 2
2017 Aug 01 90
5 2
2017 Aug 02 90 5 2
2017 Aug 03
90 5 2
2017 Aug 04 90 5 2
2017
Aug 05 90 25 5
2017 Aug 06 90
10 3
2017 Aug 07 90 8 3
2017 Aug 08
90 5 2
2017 Aug 09 90 5 2
2017
Aug 10 90 5 2
2017 Aug 11 90
5 2
2017 Aug 12 85 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
