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#171
Issued on Tuesday June 20, 2017 at 1600 UTC
We are now in summer/winter
solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions.
This means
generally poor HF radio wave propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere
especially at day and generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the
southern hemisphere especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and
most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are
improving.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor to fair at
night and very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair to good
at night and poor at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- fair to good at
night and poor to fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and poor to fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and
poor at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60
(75-60) meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25)
meters- good at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very
poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at
night and fair to good at day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night
and fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
This HF
Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the NSA_Cap HF radio wave
propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal
levels received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels
received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF
signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain
array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Monday June 19,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
73.8 73.6 73.8.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 26.
In
2017 officially there were 42 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were 2 newly risen and/or emerged official sun spot groups (SSG).
SSG
#12662 located near N12W11 with a simple alpha magnetic signature.
SSG
#12663 located near N13W57 with a slightly complex beta magnetic signature
capable of producing small in size C class solar flares.
There was 2
unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG) located
near
S08W37,
N17 W37.
No earth facing C class or larger solar
flare occurred.
No highly energetic proton day side high latitude solar
fade out (SFO) (also called polar cap absorption) occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There no earth facing
collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval
planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 2 1 2 1
0 0 0.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3-
unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7-
strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
7 and 0,
which was at quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour
period averaged background x-ray flux was at B5.08.
The 24 hour period
averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was
at
+0.61 nT north.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between
-12 and +3 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
523 and 354 km/s.
There was a newly emerged earth facing
northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH), #809. It was probably too far north to
impact Earth’s geomagnetic field in a negative manner in future
days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
