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#164
Issued on Tuesday June 13, 2017 at 1530 UTC
We are now in summer/winter
solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions.
This means
generally poor HF radio wave propagation conditions in the northern hemisphere
especially at day and generally good HF radio wave propagation conditions in the
southern hemisphere especially at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and
most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation conditions are
improving.
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and
very poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor
at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at
day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters-
fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at
night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and
poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor
at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9
Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the NSA_Cap HF
radio wave propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode
RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based
on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode
RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on
100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast
band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical
VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Monday June 12,
2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at an
unsettled level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 75.2
75.2 75.7.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 0.
This was
day 4 in a row with the big goose egg!
Today Tuesday June 13, 2017 the
unofficial daily sunspot number is 11.
In 2017 officially there were 41
days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar
minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's
of 0 are occurring now unusually early.
In 2016 officially there were 32
days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum
won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0
occurring now is unusually early.
As we move forward towards the next
solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0
daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many
months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar
cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified.
I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent,
similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no risen and/or emerged official sunspot group.
On Tuesday June 13,
2017 unofficially we have a newly risen sunspot group around the east limb of
the sun. It will be numbered 11262.
There were 2 unofficial and as of yet
unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups located
near
N10W61,
N10E83.
No earth facing C class or larger solar
flare occurred.
No day side high latitude solar fade outs (SFO) (also
called polar cap absorption) occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
was no earth facing coronal mass ejection (CME).
There was no earth
facing collapsing magnetic filament eruption.
The twenty four hour period
3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at quiet geomagnetic conditions of
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6-
moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum
and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
9 and 2,
which
was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic
indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor
geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere
just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period
averaged energetic proton flux was at a background level below 10
MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at
A8.48.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-0.49 nT south.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged
between
-4 and +12 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
541 and 370 km/s.
There was a
newly emerged earth facing transequatorial coronal hole (CH) #807.
There
was a newly emerged earth facing northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH)
#808.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
