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#144
Issued on Wednesday May 24, 2017 at 1230 UTC
We are now moving into the
summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave propagation conditions.
This
means generally poor HF radio wave propagation conditions in the northern
hemisphere especially at day and generally good HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the southern hemisphere especially at day.
Globally HF
radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall
and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and
winter solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF
BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at
day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- fair at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters-
fair at night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at
night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and
poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor
at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over
S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the W4HM_Cap
HF radio wave propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio JT65A
mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based
on 25 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode
RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on
100 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast
band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical
VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Tuesday May 23,
2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was at an
unsettled level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 75.4
76.0 75.4.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 47.
In
2017 officially there were 37 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. Other than sunspot magnetic
polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24
ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were 4 newly risen or emerged official sunspot groups.
Sunspot group
#12656 was located near N12W47 with a magnetically simple alpha magnetic
signature.
Sunspot group #12658 was located near S06W34 with a
magnetically simple alpha magnetic signature.
Sunspot group #12659 was
located near N13W05 with a magnetically simple beta magnetic
signature.
Sunspot group #12660 was located near S10W25 with a
magnetically simple beta magnetic signature.
There were 3 unofficial and
as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group located
near
S09E09,
N15W56,
S32W09.
No earth facing C class or
larger solar flares occurred.
No day side high latitude solar fade outs
(SFO) occurred.
The solar fade outs (SFO) are also called polar cap
absorption (PCA) mostly caused by energetic protons striking earth’s geomagnetic
field and increasing RF signal absorption in the D layer at high
latitudes.
An earth facing and partially directed (geoeffective) coronal
mass ejection (CME) occurred. It may impact earth’s geomagnetic field in a
negative manner on approximately Friday May 26, 2017.
No earth directed
collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.
The twenty four hour
period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions of
1 3 1 1 2 1 2 2.
The Kp geomagnetic
indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
15
and 4,
which was at unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The
Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29-
active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400-
severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are
all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged energetic proton flux was at a
background level below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background
x-ray flux was at B4.45.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component
(Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at
-2.30 nT
south.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time
index (Dst) ranged between
-18 and -2 nT.
The 24 hour period
maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
557 and 449 km/s
and was directly connected by a high speed solar wind stream (HSS) to
trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #804 (#802).
There was a new earth
facing northern hemisphere coronal hole #805. It became directly earth facing
(geoeffective) on Tuesday May 23, 2017. However as it’s located at a high
latitude position on the earth facing side of the sun, it probably won’t impact
earth’s geomagnetic field in a negative
way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by
Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information
herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp
index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar, space and
geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF propagation forecast that I produce
from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussions and HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute
it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and
geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts
are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are
subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
