Greetings to my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:
If you
find this "not for profit" daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your hamateur
and SWL radio activities feel free to drop me a line and letting me know
that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com .
Feel
free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
daily
solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety
and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images associated with my "not
for profit" daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussion and HF
radio wave propagation forecast can be
found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
My
“not for profit” daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather discussions as
well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found
at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
.
It's a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have to sign up by
using an
existing email address and creating a
password.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#140
Issued on Saturday May 20, 2017 at 1030 UTC
We are now moving into the
summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the
northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good
HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially
at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different
times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave
frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF),
lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR
& SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at
day,
15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,
12-10
(11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.
SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night
and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at
day,
20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at
day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9
Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is based on the W4HM_Cap
HF radio
wave propagation prediction software.
The hamateur radio
JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole
up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received
are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur
radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave
dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000
watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the
average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most
diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Friday May 19,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at an active level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
73.1 72.3 72.3.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 24.
In
2017 officially there were 37 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN)
of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very
difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were 2 newly risen or emerged official sunspot groups.
Sunspot group
#12656 was located near N10E38 with a magnetically simple
alpha magnetic
signature.
Sunspot group #12658 was located near S08E38 with a
magnetically simple beta
magnetic signature.
There was no unofficial
and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group.
No earth facing C
class or larger solar flares occurred.
No day side high latitude solar
fade outs (SFO) occurred.
The solar fade outs (SFO) are also called polar
cap absorption (PCA) mostly
caused by energetic protons striking earth’s
geomagnetic field and
increasing RF signal absorption in the D
layer.
No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.
No
earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.
The
twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
2 2 2 1 2 3 3
3.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4-
active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8-
severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and
we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index
(Ap) ranged between
18 and 4,
which was at active to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level
below 10 MeV.
The 24
hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at A7.62.
The 24 hour
period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic
magnetic
field was at
-0.25 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and
minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst)
ranged between
+26 and -24
nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
591 and 358 km/s
and directly connected by a high speed
solar wind stream (HSS) to trans
equatorial coronal hole (CH) #804
(#802).
There was a recurrent directly earth facing (geo effective) and
growing in
size trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #804 (#802).
As
#802 it produced minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming during its last trip
across the earth facing side of the sun and is expected to do the same again
beginning on Saturday May 20,
2017.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein
is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater
than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for
several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar,
space and geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF
propagation forecast
that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and
HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced
permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The
forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
