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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#139
Issued on Friday May 19, 2017 at 1400 UTC
We are now moving into the
summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the
northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good
HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially
at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different
times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave
frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF),
lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR
& SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor to fair at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair
at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at
night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good
at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at
day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
Received RF signal strength
scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham &
SWL
160-> 90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49,
41
30-> 31, 25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16,
15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
This HF Radio wave propagation
forecast is based on the W4HM_Cap HF radio
wave propagation prediction
software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole
up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole
up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels
are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the
average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most
diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Thursday May 18,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
74.3 72.2 72.2.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 24.
In
2017 officially there were 37 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN)
of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very
difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were 2 newly risen or emerged official sunspot groups.
Sunspot group
#12656 was located near N10E38 with a magnetically simple
alpha magnetic
signature.
Sunspot group #12658 was located near S08E35 with a magnetically
simple beta
magnetic signature.
There was 1 unofficial and as of yet
unnumbered earth facing sunspot group
located near
N14E13.
No
earth facing C class or larger solar flares occurred.
No day side high
latitude solar fade outs (SFO) occurred.
The solar fade outs (SFO) are
also called polar cap absorption (PCA) mostly
caused by energetic protons
striking earth’s geomagnetic field and
increasing RF signal absorption in
the D layer.
No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME)
occurred.
No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions
occurred.
The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index
(Kp) was at
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions of
3 3 3 1 0 1
1 2.
The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4-
active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8-
severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and
we are all dead.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index
(Ap) ranged between
18 and 2,
which was at active to quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged
energetic proton flux was at a background level
below 10 MeV.
The 24
hour period averaged background x-ray flux was at A7.51.
The 24 hour
period averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic
magnetic
field was at
-5.98 nT south.
The 24 hour period maximum and
minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst)
ranged between
-28 and +26
nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged
between
462 and 348 km/s.
There was a recurrent directly earth
facing (geo effective) and growing in
size trans equatorial coronal hole
(CH) #804 (#802).
As #802 it produced minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming
during its last trip
across the earth facing side of the sun and is expected
to do the same again
beginning on Friday May 19,
2017.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein
is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater
than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for
several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar,
space and geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF
propagation forecast
that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and
HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced
permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The
forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
