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#136
Issued on Tuesday May 16, 2017 at 1500 UTC
We are now moving into the
summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation
conditions.
This means generally poor HF radio wave propagation
conditions in the
northern hemisphere especially at day and generally good
HF radio wave
propagation conditions in the southern hemisphere especially
at day.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different
times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave
frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF),
lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR
& SW BROADCAST HF BANDS-
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor to fair at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair
at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60)
meters- good at night and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at
night and fair at day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good
at day,
15 (13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at
day,
12 (11) meters- very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11)
meters- very poor at night and poor at day.
Received RF signal strength
scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair-
S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham &
SWL
160-> 90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49,
41
30-> 31, 25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16,
15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
This HF Radio wave propagation
forecast is based on the W4HM_Cap HF radio
wave propagation prediction
software.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are
based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole
up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are
based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio
SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole
up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels
are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical VOA type curtain array
antenna.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please
keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the
average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most
diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Monday May 15,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at a quiet level.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
70.6 70.6 70.4.
The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 0.
It
was day 7 in a row with no earth facing sunspot groups.
In 2017
officially there were 37 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN)
of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2
more years,
+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring now unusually
early.
In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily
increase.
Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the
big goose
egg.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest
in the past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that
solar cycle 25 would be
virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type
solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very
difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There
were no newly risen or emerged official sunspot groups.
There were 2
unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups
located
near
N07E36,
N11E78.
No earth facing C class or larger solar
flares occurred.
No day side high latitude solar fade outs (SF)
occurred.
The solar fade outs (SF) are also called polar cap absorption
(PCA) mostly
caused by energetic protons striking earth’s geomagnetic field
and
increasing RF signal absorption in the D layer.
No earth directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.
No earth directed collapsing
magnetic filament eruptions occurred.
The twenty four hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) was at
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic
conditions of
0 2 2 3 2 2 3 3.
The Kp geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
18
and 2,
which was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap
geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29-
active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400-
severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are
all dead.
The 24 hour period averaged energetic proton flux was at a
background level
below 10 MeV.
The 24 hour period averaged background
x-ray flux was at B2.24.
The 24 hour period averaged vertical component
(Bz) of earth's geomagnetic
magnetic field was at
+2.18 nT
north.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time
index (Dst)
ranged between
+30 and -7 nT.
The 24 hour period
maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
392 and 339
km/s.
But so far today Tuesday May 16, 2017 the solar wind has risen to
at least
600 km/s due to the arrival of a co rotating interaction region
(CIR) and
high speed solar wind stream (HSS) directly connected to coronal
hole (CH)
#803.
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #803
(#801) was visible on
the earth facing side of the sun.
A recurrent
and growing in size trans equatorial coronal hole (CH) #804
(#802) was
visible on the earth facing the side of
sun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein
is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater
than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for
several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the solar,
space and geomagnetic discussions as well as the HF
propagation forecast
that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the solar, space and
geomagnetic weather discussions and
HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without advanced
permission to redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The
forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
