For my fellow RTTY contesters, this weekend's HF radio wave propagation
looks pretty bad. No surprise there.
For my hamateur radio and
SWL friends around the globe:
Feel free without advanced permission to
redistribute this "not for profit"
solar, space and geomagnetic weather
observation, discussion and HF radio
wave propagation forecast, as long as
you redistribute it in its entirety
and
give me credit for
it.
Supporting images associated with my daily solar, space &
geomagnetic
weather observations and discussions can be found in my Twitter
account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm and in
my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
My
daily solar, space & geomagnetic weather observations and discussions as
well as my daily HF radio wave propagation forecasts can also be found
at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
and in my Facebook
account at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
It's
a NO SPAM "opt" in email type group, so you have to sign up by using an
existing email address and creating a password.
I'm also posting
excerpts some of my daily solar, space and geomagnetic
weather observations,
discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#97
Issued on Saturday April 22, 2017 at 1400 UTC
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:
Global
generalized HF radio wave propagation conditions are
very poor to fair on
10-80 (11-75) meters
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and
very poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and poor at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and
very poor at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very
Good- +1 over S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very
Poor- S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio
wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the
average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and
most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes
in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F
layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into
play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there
is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into
the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation
and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar,
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Friday April 21,
2017-
Solar activity was moderate.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
at storming levels.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were
83.9 82.2
82.9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The
official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 39.
In 2017 officially there were
30 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar
minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years,
+/- 1 year, observations
daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.
In 2016 officially
there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that
solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily
SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.
As we move forward towards
the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days
with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually every day for many,
many, many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I
forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that
forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be
virtually
nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the
early 1800's. It will probably be very difficult to
determine when solar
cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recurrent
sunspot group #12651 (#12644) was located near N11E32 with a
magnetically
simple beta signature.
Sunspot group #12652 was located near N12E46 with
a magnetically simple
alpha magnetic signature.
Newly risen sunspot
group #12653 was located near S10E75 with a magnetically
simple alpha
magnetic signature.
Unofficially there were no earth facing but as of yet
unnumbered sunspot
groups.
No earth facing C class or larger solar
flares occurred.
No earth facing coronal mass ejections (CME)
occurred.
No earth directed day side radio black outs
occurred.
The twenty four hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index
(Kp) was at
minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet (Kp-3)
geomagnetic
conditions of
1 1 1 0 2 4 5 5.
But as of Saturday
April 22, 2017 the planetary K index (Kp) index has been
as high as a 6
which is moderate geomagnetic storming.
The Kp geomagnetic indices
are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
56
and 2,
which was at major geomagnetic storming conditions to quiet
geomagnetic
conditions.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The daily averaged
background x-ray flux was at B9.62.
The daily averaged vertical component
(Bz) of earth's magnetic field was at
-4.47 nT south.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst)
ranged
between
+1 and -62 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed ranged between
654 and 458 km/s
and was directly
connected by a high speed solar wind stream to recurrent
(CH) coronal hole
#801 (#797), which set across the west limb of the sun.
But as of
Saturday April 22, 2017 the solar wind speed has been as high as
751
km/s.
There was a recurrent southern hemisphere (geoeffective) directly
earth
facing (CH) coronal hole #802 (#798). It produced moderate (Kp-6)
geomagnetic storming during its last trip across the earth facing side of
the sun and is expected to do the same this time
around.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation
indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein
is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is
given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below
in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation
possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic
field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot
number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number
of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer
ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7
for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater
than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for
several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a
(positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm,
as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates
the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the
propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my
personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation
forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella,
W4HM.
Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic
weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as
you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.
Also
solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science.
The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
