venerdì 31 marzo 2017

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period March 31 - April 6, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A6.0-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-95 f.u.
Events: class C (0-5/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-75

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 31 - April 6, 2017


Quiet: Apr 6
Unsettled: Mar 31 - Apr 5
Active:  Apr 3 - 5
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
The local geomagnetic activity reached at Budkov observatory minor storm
level (Local K-index at 5) at Monday, March 27.
Next day, we expect at most unsettled level. During the first April week
(especially between April 3 and 5) more active episodes are possible due
to the current high speed solar wind recursive events.


Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 31 - April 25, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on April 9 - 10, 14 - 16, 20 - 22
mostly quiet on April 6, 8, 11
quiet to unsettled April 4, 12 - 13, 19
quiet to active on April 3, 5, 7, 23, 25
active to disturbed on March 31, April 1 - 2, 17 - 18, 24

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on March 31, April 1 - 4, (5 - 8,) 12 - 13. (14,) 16 - 20, 25

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz