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#61
Issued on Sunday March 12, 2017 at 1430 UTC
Global HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:
HF
radio wave propagation conditions are improving 17-80 meters.
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night
and poor at day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at
day,
20-17 (22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15
(13) meters- very poor at night and fair to good at day,
12 (11) meters-
very poor at night and fair at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night
and poor to fair at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and fair at day,
12(11) meters- very poor at night and poor to fair
at day.
10 (11) meters- very poor at night and poor at
day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over S9 Or
Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Meter
Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160-> 90
80->
75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31, 25
20->
22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10-> 11
Please keep
in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation
forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio
enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions also change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency
(FoF2).
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave
signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio
wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings
on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Saturday March 11,
2017-
Solar activity was very low.
Earth's geomagnetic field was
unsettled.
The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 70.4 70.0
69.0.
The SFI of 69.0 is the lowest so far on the downward side of solar
cycle 24.
It has occurred much earlier than normal. Normally a SFI below 70
occurs at
the bottom of a solar cycle.
The official daily sunspot
number (SSN) was 0.
This is the 6th day in a row with the big goose
egg.
There were no earth facing sunspot groups.
In 2017 officially
there were 18 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three
more
years, +/- one year, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually
early.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In
2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 occurring now is unusually early.
As
we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and
#25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.
Eventually
every day for many many many months will see a 0, the big goose
egg.
In 2008 I fore casted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the
past 100 years
and that forecast verified. I also fore casted that solar
cycle 25 would be
virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's. It will probably be very
difficult to
determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25
began.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No
earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.
No earth directed
collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.
The twenty four hour
period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at
unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions of
1 0 1 0 0 0 1 3.
The Kp geomagnetic
indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our
atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between
18
and 0,
which was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap
geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29-
active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400-
severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are
all dead.
The daily averaged background x-ray flux was A1.0.
The
daily averaged vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field
was -1.6 nT
south.
The maximum and minimum Dst ranged between -25 and -7.
The
maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
437 and 348
km/s.
There was a northern hemisphere earth facing (CH) coronal hole
#795.
There was a northern hemisphere earth facing (CH) coronal hole
#796.
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GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices
"interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio
wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as
proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible.
Something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping
geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily
sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot
number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F
Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer
than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours
Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However the propagation forecast that
I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free to
redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF
radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's
entirety and give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and geomagnetic
weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not
official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject
to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
