For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:
I have decided to
begin posting some of my daily solar, space and
geomagnetic weather
discussions and HF radio wave propagation forecasts in
my Twitter account at
@GiellaW4hm . Of course it will consist of little
snippets of what's going
on as Twitter severely limits tweets as far as
content length.
Feel
free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.
Also feel
free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast as
it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness of it.
Images
associated with this HF radio wave propagation forecast can be found
at https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
Issued
on Sunday February 12, 2017 at 1200 UTC
Global HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast
HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- good at night and poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- good at night and fair at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- very poor at night and good at day,
15 (13) meters- very
poor at night and fair to good at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at
night and poor at day.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE
PROPAGATION-
80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at
day,
40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,
20-17
(22-15) meters- fair at night and fair at day,
15 (13) meters- poor at
night and fair at day,
12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very
poor at day.
Received RF signal strength scale-
Very Good- +1 over
S9 Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor-
S0
Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->
90
80-> 75
60-> 60
40-> 49, 41
30-> 31,
25
20-> 22, 19
17-> 16, 15
15-> 13
12,10->
11
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most
diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar
Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On
Saturday February 11,
2017-
Solar activity was low.
Earth's magnetic field was
quiet.
The solar flux index (SFI) was 75.5 75.7 75.6.
The official
daily sunspot number (SSN) was 18.
In 2017 there were 11 days with a
daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur
for approximately three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 is occurring
unusually early.
In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number
(SSN) of 0.
Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately
three more
years, seeing daily SSN's of 0 is occurring unusually
early.
As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar
cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily sunspot number will
dramatically
increase. Eventually most every day for many many months will
see a 0.
In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the
past 100 years
and that came forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar
cycle 25 would
be virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar
minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.
Sunspot group #12635 was
located near N13E01 with a simple beta magnetic
signature.
No earth
directed solar flares occurred.
No earth directed coronal mass ejections
(CME) occurred.
No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions
occurred.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was
at quiet
geomagnetic conditions 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2.
The maximum and
minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 9 and 4, which
was at
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The averaged background x-ray
flux was A6.2.
The vertical component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was
-1.0 nT south.
The Dst ranged between -21 and +9.
No energetic
proton events greater than 10 MeV (10+0) occurred.
The maximum and
minimum solar wind speed was 436 and 369. km/s.
There was a recurrent
transequatorial earth facing coronal hole #790 (#786).
During it's last
passage across the earth facing side of the sun it produced
minor (Kp-4)
negative impacts on HF radio wave
propagation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The
Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5-
minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9-
extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all
dead.
The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15
unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99-
major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on
Mars and we are all
dead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices
"interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio
wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as
proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are
better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or
higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine
stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.)
Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3
for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several
days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV
(10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No current STRATWARM
alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive
number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2
layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards
zero.
13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA
Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and
educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation
forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).
However the propagation forecast that
I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free to
redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF
radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's
entirety and give me credit for it.
Also solar, space and geomagnetic
weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not
official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject
to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implie
d.
