:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 30 Jan - 05 Feb 2017
Solar activity was very low through the
period with only two B-class
flares observed from Regions 2631 (S05, L=113,
class/area Bxo/010 on
31 January) and 2632 (N14, L=085, class/area Dao/060 on
02 February)
on 04 February. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal to moderate levels on 31 January and reached high levels on
30
January and again on 01-05 February. The largest flux of the
period was
22,414 pfu observed at 04/1820 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged
from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions. The period began with
solar wind
speeds near 400 km/s. By 30/1138 UTC, total field and solar
wind
speed began to increase indicating the arrival of a
co-rotating
interaction region followed by a negative polarity coronal hole
high
speed stream (CH HSS). By 31/1153, total field reached a maximum
of
17.2 nT while the solar wind speed reached a peak of 796 km/s
at
31/2041 UTC. By 31/1600 UTC, total field had decreased to 5-6 nT
while
the solar wind speed began to decline early on 02 February
until early on 05
February when another increase to near 630 km/s
was observed. The geomagnetic
field responded with quiet to
unsettled levels on 30 January and 04 February,
quiet to active
levels on 02-03 and 05 February, and unsettled to G1 (Minor)
storm
levels on 31 January through 01 February.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 06 FEBRUARY - 04 MARCH 2017
Solar activity is
expected to be very low levels throughout the
period with a chance for
C-class flares on 11-24 February with the
return of old Region 2628 (N12,
L=174).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on
06-13, 16-19, 22-26 and 28 February - 04 March due to recurrent
CH HSS
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet with
unsettled to
active levels expected on 06-09,14-18, 22-25 and 27 February -
04
March with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 27 February
and
01-02 March and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on
28
February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by
the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-02-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Feb 06 72
10 3
2017 Feb 07 72 12 4
2017 Feb 08
72 12 4
2017 Feb 09 72 8 3
2017
Feb 10 72 5 2
2017 Feb 11 75
5 2
2017 Feb 12 75 5 2
2017 Feb 13
75 5 2
2017 Feb 14 75 15 4
2017
Feb 15 76 10 3
2017 Feb 16 77
10 3
2017 Feb 17 78 8 3
2017 Feb 18
80 8 3
2017 Feb 19 80 5 2
2017
Feb 20 82 5 2
2017 Feb 21 82
5 2
2017 Feb 22 81 10 3
2017 Feb 23
79 15 4
2017 Feb 24 77 10 3
2017
Feb 25 77 10 3
2017 Feb 26 75
5 2
2017 Feb 27 75 25 5
2017 Feb 28
75 30 6
2017 Mar 01 75 25 5
2017
Mar 02 74 20 5
2017 Mar 03 74
15 4
2017 Mar 04 73 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
