:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 12 0110 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 05 - 11 December 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to low
over the period. Very low
levels were observed on 06-09 December and again on
11 December. Low
levels occured on 05 and 10 December with isolated C-class
flare
activity observed from Region 2615 (S07, L=139, class/area
Dai/200
on 05 Dec).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels on 05-07 December and on 09-11 December with
moderate
levels observed on 08 December. A peak flux of 24,002 pfu
was
observed at 11/1525 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from
quiet to active levels with a
couple of isolated G1 (Minor) storms periods.
The period began with
quiet to isolated unsettled activity through midday on
07 December.
Solar wind parameters were nominal with winds speeds in the
300-375
km/s range. By midday to late on 07 December, activity
levels
increased to unsettled to active as the field came under
the
influence of a large, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Phi
angle
rotated from a positve to a negative orientation, wind speeds
spiked
from about 375 km/s to near 550 km/s, total field Bt increased to
16
nT while the Bz component was variable between +14 nT to -8 nT.
From
08-09 December, wind speeds continued to increase reaching a peak
of
731 km/s early on 09 December. Field conditions responded
with
unsettled to active levels with G1 (Minor) strom levels recorded
late
on the 9th. From 10-11 December, field conditions were
generally at unsettled
to active levels with some quiet periods on
the 10th. Wind speeds began a
gradual decline with values near 550
km/s by the end of the summary period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 12 DEC 2016 - 07 JAN
2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a
slight
chance of C-class activity throughout the outlook period.
No
proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at mostly high
levels through the summary period with
moderate levels likely on 19-21
December.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 18-25 December and again on 02-07 January due to
recurrent
CH HSSs. In addition, G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on
21
December and 04-05 January to include G2 (Moderate) storm conditions
on
22 December. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the
remainder of the
outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 12 0110 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-12-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Dec 12 73
8 3
2016 Dec 13 73 5 2
2016 Dec 14
75 5 2
2016 Dec 15 75 5 2
2016
Dec 16 75 5 2
2016 Dec 17 75
5 2
2016 Dec 18 75 8 3
2016 Dec 19
82 12 4
2016 Dec 20 82 16 4
2016
Dec 21 86 22 5
2016 Dec 22 86
30 6
2016 Dec 23 88 12 4
2016 Dec 24
88 10 3
2016 Dec 25 88 8 3
2016
Dec 26 88 5 2
2016 Dec 27 88
5 2
2016 Dec 28 86 5 2
2016 Dec 29
86 5 2
2016 Dec 30 88 5 2
2016
Dec 31 88 5 2
2017 Jan 01 88
5 2
2017 Jan 02 86 8 3
2017 Jan 03
86 10 3
2017 Jan 04 84 20 5
2017
Jan 05 82 22 5
2017 Jan 06 80
16 4
2017 Jan 07 80 16 4
(via DXLD)
