:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 22 0524 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 15 - 21 August 2016
Solar activity was at low levels on 15
August due to an isolated C1
flare at 15/0023 UTC from Region 2578 (N09,
L=084, class/area
Cro/020 on 18 Aug). Very low levels were observed from
16-21 August.
Although Regions 2574 (N05, L=173, class/area Dho/290 on 09
Aug),
2576 (S15, L=160, class/area Hsx/140 on 10 Aug), 2577 (N03,
L=164,
class/area Dso/130 on 12 Aug), and 2578 were on the visible
disk
during the period, the regions appeared to be in slow decay.
No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 15-16 August,
moderate levels on 17 and 19-21 August
and normal levels on 18 August. The
largest flux of the period was
9,570 pfu observed at 15/1605 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels
with an isolated active period observed on 21 August due to a
pair
of weak, negative polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH
HSS).
Quiet levels were observed on 15 August under a nominal solar
wind
regime. By early on 17 August, solar wind speed increased to 435
km/s
while total field increased to near 9 nT. Quiet to unsettled
levels were
observed from 16-18 August with quiet levels on 19-20
August. Solar wind
speed decreased slowly until midday on 21 August
when another CH HSS became
geoeffective. The geomagnetic field
responded with quiet to active levels on
21 August.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 22 AUGUST-17
SEPTEMBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
through
the forecast period (22 Aug-17 Sep).
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels likely
on 26-28 August and from 31 August-12 September as a result
of
recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected
to be at unsettled to active
levels from 23-25 August, 29 August-08
September, 13-14 September,
and again on 17 September with G1 (Minor) storm
levels likely on
30-31 August due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 22 0524 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-08-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Aug 22 80
7 2
2016 Aug 23 80 8 3
2016 Aug 24
80 12 4
2016 Aug 25 84 8 3
2016
Aug 26 84 5 2
2016 Aug 27 82
5 2
2016 Aug 28 80 5 2
2016 Aug 29
78 15 4
2016 Aug 30 75 25 5
2016
Aug 31 75 18 5
2016 Sep 01 75
15 4
2016 Sep 02 80 15 4
2016 Sep 03
85 12 4
2016 Sep 04 90 12 4
2016
Sep 05 90 15 4
2016 Sep 06 90
15 4
2016 Sep 07 90 8 3
2016 Sep 08
90 10 3
2016 Sep 09 90 5 2
2016
Sep 10 90 5 2
2016 Sep 11 88
5 2
2016 Sep 12 88 5 2
2016 Sep 13
85 10 3
2016 Sep 14 80 8 3
2016
Sep 15 80 5 2
2016 Sep 16 78
5 2
2016 Sep 17 75 8 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
