Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Nov 09 0211 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 02 - 08 November 2015
Solar activity was at very low to moderate
levels. The summary
period began with numerous weak to mid-level C-class
flares from
Regions 2443 (N07, L=316, class/area Fkc/650 on 01 Nov) and
2445
(N15, L=026, class/area Dac/240 on 02 Nov) observed on
02-03
November. Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor) on
04
November. At 04/0326 UTC, Region 2445 produced an M1/1n flare with
an
associated Type II radio sweep (790 km/s estimated shock
velocity). In
addition, discrete frequency bursts of 56,000 sfu and
41,000 sfu were
observed on 245 MHz and 410 MHz, respectively.
Region 2445 also prodcued an
M2/1n flare at 04/1203 UTC with an
associated Type II sweep (1033 km/s
estimated shock velocity).
Shortly afterward, Region 2443 produced an M3/2b
flare with
associated Type II (955 km/s estimated shock velocity) and Type
IV
sweeps. This event also prodcued an associated partial-halo
coronal
mass ejection (CME), first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at
04/1436
UTC.
By 05 November, activity levels declined to very low
levels. Levels
increased to low on 06-07 November with weak to mid-level
C-class
activity observed from Regions 2446 (N15, L-349, class/area
Cro/020
on 01 Nov), 2448 (N06, L=234, class/area Dao/140 on 06 Nov),
2449
(S12, L=209, class/area Dao/150 on 07 Nov) and 2450 (S23,
L=200,
class/area Bxo/010 on 07 Nov).
No proton events were observed
at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 02-03 November and high levels
on 04-07 November
due to enhanced solar wind speeds.
Geomagnetic
field activity was at quiet to major storm levels. The
summary period began
with quiet to unsettled levels on 02 November.
Solar wind speeds, measured at
the ACE spacecraft, were weak at
about 300 km/s. Field activity picked up to
unsettled to minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) on 03-04 November due to effects
from an
equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
(CH
HSS). Wind parameters observed a rapid increase in winds speeds to
an
average of about 675 km/s with a peak of near 770 km/s early on
04 November.
Total field (Bt) increased to peak at 34 nT about
03/0700 UTC while the Bz
component reached a maximum southward
extent of -24 nT at 03/0620 UTC.
Activity levels decreased to quiet
to active on 05 November through early on
06 November as effects
from the CH HSS waned. Quiet levels were observed from
06/0300-1800
UTC. During this time frame, wind speeds decreased to near 475
km/s
while Bt and Bz relaxed to nominal levels.
On 06/1800-2400 UTC,
field activity increased to active levels and
further increased to minor to
major storm levels (G1-G2 /
Minor-Moderate) for the first half of 07
November. This increase in
activity was attributed to the arrival of the 04
November CME. Wind
speeds increased to 719 km/s at 07/0257 UTC, Bt increased
to 20 nT
late on 06 November and the Bz component varied between +18 nT
to
-16 nT. The last half of 07 November through the first half of
08
November saw field conditions relax to quiet levels. Wind
speeds
declined to about 425 km/s while Bt and Bz relaxed to
nominal
levels. By midday on the 8th, wind parameters indicated the
likely
onset of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked to near 550 km/s
late
on the 8th while Bt reached 10 nT and Bz was mostly southward to
-6
nT.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 09 NOV - 05 DEC
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with
a
chance for moderate levels (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) through the
outlook
period. Regions 2443 and 2449 , coupled with the return of
old Region 2437
(S18, L=098) on 12 November, are the regions most
likely to produce M-class
activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit in the
absence
of any significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high
levels on 09-16 November and
again on 01-05 December due to an enhanced solar
wind enviroment as
recurrent CH HSSs become geoeffective. Normal to moderate
levels are
expected on 10-30 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 09-11 November. Minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) are expected
on 09 November as a recurrent, positive
polarity CH HSS impacts
Earth. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
16-17 November due
to extended periods of southward Bz. Unsettled to active
levels are
expected on 30 November - 02 December and again on 05 December,
with
minor storm levels likely on 30 November and 01 December.
This
activity is due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSSs. Quiet
to
unsettled levels are expected for 12-15 and 18-29
November.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 09 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-11-09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Nov 09 108
25 5
2015 Nov 10 108 18 4
2015 Nov 11
110 12 4
2015 Nov 12 110 8 3
2015
Nov 13 110 8 3
2015 Nov 14 110
8 3
2015 Nov 15 110 8 3
2015 Nov 16
105 8 3
2015 Nov 17 100 12 4
2015
Nov 18 100 5 2
2015 Nov 19 105
5 2
2015 Nov 20 105 5 2
2015 Nov 21
105 5 2
2015 Nov 22 105 5 2
2015
Nov 23 110 5 2
2015 Nov 24 110
5 2
2015 Nov 25 110 5 2
2015 Nov 26
115 8 3
2015 Nov 27 115 5 2
2015
Nov 28 120 8 3
2015 Nov 29 120
8 3
2015 Nov 30 120 25 5
2015 Dec 01
115 25 5
2015 Dec 02 110 15 4
2015
Dec 03 110 8 3
2015 Dec 04 110
5 2
2015 Dec 05 110 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
