:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 1821 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 28 Sept - 04 Oct 2015
Solar activity reached high levels as the
period was dominated by
M-class flare activity from active regions located in
the southwest
quadrant. In total 20 M-class flares were observed with two
reaching
the R2 (Moderate) radio blackout threshold. Four R1 (Minor)
radio
blackouts were observed from Region 2423 (S09,
L=154,
class/area=Dac/180 on 28 Sep) early in the period as the
region
transited the southwest limb, but once out of view Region 2422
(S18,
L=102, class/area=Fkc/950 on 29 Sep) became the source of
the
remainder of M-class flare activity. Region 2422 was relatively
benign
until it reached central meridian and began a rapid growth
phase where it
increased significantly in magnetic complexity.
Region 2422 produced a total
of 14 R1 (Minor) radio blackouts and
two R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts, the
largest of which was an M7
flare observed at 28/1458 UTC. Numerous coronal
mass ejections
(CMEs) associated with the activity eminating from the
southwest
quadrant were observed throughout the period, but none
were
Earth-directed.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became
slightly enhanced late on
30 Sep through midday on 01 Oct due to a pair of
M1/1n flares from
Region 2422 observed midday on 30 Sep. The greater than 10
MeV
proton flux briefly reached a peak of 1.4 pfu at 01/0000 UTC but
began
a slow return to background levels shortly thereafter.
The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels on 28
Sep-01 Oct and was at normal levels on 02-04
Oct.
Geomagnetic field
activity was at quiet levels on 28 and 30 Sep and
quiet to unsettled levels
on 29 Sep under a nominal solar wind
regime. Quiet to active levels were
observed on 01-03 Oct due to a
combination of weak positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream
influence, a period of prolonged southward Bz, and
substorming. On
04 Oct active conditions were observed early and late in the
period
with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms
were
observed between 0600-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field activity on
04
Oct was attributed to periods of southward Bz and localized
substorms.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 05 - 31 OCTOBER
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate
levels
throughout the period with likely C-class flare activity and
a
chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity on 06-29
Oct
due to the return of multiple active regions which produced
event level
activity last rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to reach high levels on 08-15 Oct with moderate
levels
expected on 05-07 and 16-24 Oct. Normal levels are expected for
the
remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected
to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 09 Oct with active levels
expected on
05, 08, 10, 17, 20, 29, and 31 Oct due to recurrent coronal
hole
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected
throughout the remainder of the period.
:Product: 27-day
Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 05 1823 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-10-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Oct 05 85
12 4
2015 Oct 06 85 8 3
2015 Oct 07
85 8 3
2015 Oct 08 90 15 4
2015
Oct 09 90 20 5
2015 Oct 10 95
18 4
2015 Oct 11 95 12 3
2015 Oct 12
100 8 3
2015 Oct 13 115 8 3
2015
Oct 14 120 8 3
2015 Oct 15 125
8 3
2015 Oct 16 130 10 3
2015 Oct 17
130 12 4
2015 Oct 18 130 8 3
2015
Oct 19 125 10 3
2015 Oct 20 120
12 4
2015 Oct 21 120 8 3
2015 Oct 22
120 8 3
2015 Oct 23 120 8 3
2015
Oct 24 120 8 3
2015 Oct 25 120
8 3
2015 Oct 26 115 8 3
2015 Oct 27
110 8 3
2015 Oct 28 100 10 3
2015
Oct 29 100 12 4
2015 Oct 30 95
10 3
2015 Oct 31 90 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
