:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 14 0537 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 07 - 13 September 2015
Solar activity was very low with the
exception of 11 September when
Region 2414 (S10, L=321, class/area Dai/190 on
13 Sep) produced an
isolated C1/Sf flare at 11/2137 UTC. A large filament
structure was
observed lifting off the NW quadrant in SDO/AIA 171
imagery
beginning at 07/0740 UTC. Subsequent analysis indicated a
glancing
blow on 11 September. By 13 September, old Region 2403 (S15,
L=192),
which was responsible for multiple M-class flares last
rotation,
returned to the visible disk as new Region 2418 (S15,
L=203,
class/area Hsx/120 on 13 Sep). The region appears to
have
simplified, however due to limb proximity, there might be
more
associated spots yet to become visible.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
mostly high levels with moderate levels observed
on 08 September.
The largest flux value for the period was 11,910 pfu
observed at
13/1425 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to
severe storm (G3-Strong)
levels during the period. The period began under the
influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
coupled
with a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was the result of a
filament
eruption on 04 September. Solar wind speed increased to over
600
km/s just after 07/1400 UTC followed by an increase in total field
to
20 nT by 08/0700 UTC. The Bz component rotated southward by
08/2323 UTC to a
maximum of -9 nT on 09 September. The geomagnetic
field responded with
periods of major storm levels (G2-Moderate)
from 07-09 September. By 10
September, total field had decreased to
5 nT with solar wind speeds around
410 km/s. The geomagnetic field
was at quiet to active levels on 10
September. By early on 11
September, total field increased again to 16 nT
while the Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -16 nT
at
11/0730 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to near 660 km/s by 11/1140
UTC
as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream became
geoeffective,
possibly in combination with the glancing blow from
the 07 September CME. The
geomagnetic field responded with unsettled
to severe storm levels (G3-Strong)
on 11 September. Throughout the
rest of the period, solar wind parameters
slowly diminished to near
nominal levels. Quiet to active levels were
observed on 12 September
with quiet to unsettled levels on 13 September.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 14 SEPT - 10 OCT
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with
a
slight chance for M-class flares from 14-26 September as Regions
2414
and 2418 rotate across the visible disk.
No proton events are expected
at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels
expected on 14-18, 21-22, 26-27 September and from 02-06,
09-10
October due to influence from multiple recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 14-16, 20, 24-25 September, and from 30 September
through
10 October with minor storm (G1-Minor) periods likely on
15
September, 01 October, 05-06 October, 08 October, and major
storm
periods possible on 04 October due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 14 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-09-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Sep 14 105
12 4
2015 Sep 15 105 20 5
2015 Sep 16
100 12 4
2015 Sep 17 95 8 3
2015
Sep 18 90 8 3
2015 Sep 19 90
8 3
2015 Sep 20 90 12 4
2015 Sep 21
90 8 3
2015 Sep 22 90 5 2
2015
Sep 23 90 5 2
2015 Sep 24 90
15 4
2015 Sep 25 90 10 3
2015 Sep 26
90 5 2
2015 Sep 27 85 5 2
2015
Sep 28 80 5 2
2015 Sep 29 85
5 2
2015 Sep 30 90 8 3
2015 Oct 01
95 18 5
2015 Oct 02 90 12 4
2015
Oct 03 85 12 4
2015 Oct 04 85
25 6
2015 Oct 05 85 20 5
2015 Oct 06
85 18 5
2015 Oct 07 90 12 4
2015
Oct 08 95 18 5
2015 Oct 09 100
15 4
2015 Oct 10 100 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
