:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 May 11 0537 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 04 - 10 May 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels
during the period. The
largest and most active regions on the solar disk this
period were
Regions 2335 (S15, L=192, class/area Eac/310 on 04 May) and
2339
(N13, L=129, class/area Fkc/900 on 08 May). Region 2335 began
the
period reaching its peak in area and magnetic complexity
(Beta-gamma).
On 05 May it produced two M-class flares; an M1 at
05/1425 UTC and an M2 at
05/1724 UTC. By 06 May, Region 2335 was in
decay and ended the period as a
simple Cro spot class with a beta
magnetic configuration. Region 2339 was in
a growth phase since it
rotated around the NE limb on 05 May. This region was
responsible
for multiple M-class flaring spanning 05-06 May and an impulsive
X2
flare at 05/2211 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep
(1163
km/s), a 590 sfu Tenflare and a non-Earth directed coronal
mass
ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/2224
UTC
off the NE limb. Solar activity declined to low levels from
07-10 May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate
levels on 04-05 May and at normal levels from 06-10 May.
Geomagnetic
field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
during the period. The
period started off with quiet conditions on
04 and 05 May under a nominal
solar wind regime. At 06/0053 UTC, a
shock was observed at the ACE satellite
associated with a 02 May CME
that occurred as a result of an 18 degree
filament eruption observed
between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Total field increased to
a maximum of 18
nT at 06/0614 UTC while the Bz component went southward to a
maximum
of -13 nT at 06/1216 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from 363
km/s
to around 490 km/s. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was
subsequently
observed at 06/0143 UTC with a 31 nT deviation in the
Boulder
magnetometer. As a result, quiet to minor storm levels were
observed
on 06 May. By late on 06 May and through 07 May, the Bz
component
deflected north and remained so as CME effects diminished.
Nominal
solar wind conditions prevailed through 10 May when the total
field
became enhanced once again. Total field increased to 14 nT
with
prolonged periods of southward Bz. No appreciable increase in
solar
wind speed was observed with this event, however. The
geomagnetic
field was quiet on 07 May, quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 May
and
quiet to active on 10 May.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 11 MAY - 06 JUNE 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 11-18
May as Region 2339
transits the visible disk and again from 31 May-06 June
when Region
2339 returns.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels
possible from 13-18 May and again from 21-23 May due to coronal
hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels from 11 through 14 May with
periods of minor storming
(G1-Minor) likely on 12-13 May due to a combination
of a co-rotating
interaction region followed by a CH HSS. Unsettled to active
levels
are also expected from 18-19 May and 02 -03 June with
possible
periods of minor storming on 18 May due to multiple recurrent
CH
HSS.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 11 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-05-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 May 11 160
12 4
2015 May 12 165 25 5
2015 May 13
160 25 5
2015 May 14 155 12 4
2015
May 15 155 8 3
2015 May 16 155
5 2
2015 May 17 145 5 2
2015 May 18
135 20 5
2015 May 19 125 12 4
2015
May 20 120 8 3
2015 May 21 115
5 2
2015 May 22 115 5 2
2015 May 23
115 5 2
2015 May 24 110 5 2
2015
May 25 110 5 2
2015 May 26 110
5 2
2015 May 27 110 5 2
2015 May 28
115 5 2
2015 May 29 120 8 3
2015
May 30 120 8 3
2015 May 31 120
5 2
2015 Jun 01 130 8 3
2015 Jun 02
140 15 4
2015 Jun 03 140 10 3
2015
Jun 04 140 5 2
2015 Jun 05 145
5 2
2015 Jun 06 150 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
