lunedì 31 dicembre 2018

Media & Tech - 31/12/2018

W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-365

<<<<<I want to wish my Facebook friends around the world a very “Happy New Year” in 2019 and also a safe and prosperous new year for all.>>>>>

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet.

I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at


I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at


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Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.


W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#365 Issued Monday December 31, 2018 at 1630 UTC
 
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were

69.8 69.4 69.1.

There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 15 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 221 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of

2 3 3 2 2 3 2 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between

15 & 5,

which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between

xx & xx nT. The data was unavailable.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was

549 & 451 km/s.

GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 31, 2018- steady.

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jan 1, 2018- improvement.

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jan 2, 2019- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season.
The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated.
The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season.

The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.


GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S9-+5
*North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S6-8
+South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S9+1

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
S9+1
*South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S6-7
+North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
S9

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude
S4-6
Mid Latitude
S9+10
Low latitude
S7-8

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude
S2-4
Mid Latitude
S6-7
Low latitude
S3-5

This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software.
I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab.
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING.
Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens only rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays.
There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4.
Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible.
The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best.
3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error

and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Uncle Bill's Rockless NYE Special now on air


FTIOM, UBMP & Uncle Bill's Rockless NYE Special

Uncle Bill's Rockless New Year's Eve Special:

Unusual new year's customs and music from around the world.
A. For Europe: Monday, December 31, 1800-1900 UTC
on Spaceline, 9400kHz from Bulgaria

B. For the Americas and portions of Europe: Midnight, December 31 (0000-0100 UTC Tuesday, or 7-8pm Eastern Time US) on WBCQ 5130 kHz

From the Isle of Music, December 30-January 5:

This week, we celebrate the new year with a Cuban dance party including some new music that most of you have not heard before plus great music from past decades.
The broadcasts take place:

1. For Eastern Europe but audible well beyond the target area in most of the Eastern Hemisphere (including parts of East Asia and Oceania) with 100Kw, Sunday 1500-1600 UTC on SpaceLine, 9400 KHz, from Kostinbrod, Bulgaria (1800-1900 MSK)

2. For the Americas and parts of Europe, Tuesday 0100-0200 UTC (New UTC) on WBCQ, 7490 KHz from Monticello, ME, USA (Monday 8-9PM EST in the US). This has been audible in parts of NW, Central and Southern Europe with an excellent skip to Italy recently.

3 & 4. For Europe and sometimes beyond, Tuesday 1900-2000 UTC and Saturday 1200-1300 UTC (New CETs) on Channel 292, 6070 KHz from Rohrbach, Germany.

SPECIAL: Uncle Bill's Melting Pot AND
Uncle Bill's Rockless New Year's Eve Special:

Uncle Bill’s Melting Pot, Dec 30 2018 & Jan 1, 2019
Episode 94 presents music from Senegal

A. Sunday 2300-2330 UTC (6:00PM -6:30PM Eastern US) on WBCQ The Planet 7490 KHz from the US to the Americas and parts of Europe

B. Tuesday 2000-2030 UTC on Channel 292, 6070 KHz from Rohrbach, Germany for Europe.  If current propagation conditions hold, the broadcast should reach Iceland AND Western Russia due to a long skip.

Happy New Year!

William "Bill" Tilford, Owner/Producer
Tilford Productions, LLC
(DX LISTENING DIGEST)

Ascolti AM Sicilia nord-est 31/12/2018

Ciao e auguri di FELICE ANNO NUOVO, di buoni DX nel 2019!

1170  31/12 0614 Radio Capodistria, Beli kriz Meteo Nx It 25422
6070  31/12 0807 Radio Channel 292, Rohrbach Mx Px  E 15422
7440  31/12 0810 Radio Channel 292, Rorhbach Mx Px  E 25422
7505  31/12 0820 WRNO Radio, New Orleans Mx E 15422
9610  31/12 1218 AWR KSDA Guam, Agat Px rel. M 15421
9700  31/12 1220 R.New Zealand Pacific, Rangitaiki Nx Mx E 25422
9910  31/12 1226 KTWR Guam, Merizo Px rel. Ass 25422
9920  31/12 1227 FEBC Radio Manila, Iba Mx Px rel. Rad 25422
9975  31/12 1228 WHRI T8WH, PLW-Medor Nx Mx E 25422
11945 31/12 1229 Reach Beyond Australia, Kununurra jingle ID Px rel. E 45454
12065 31/12 1232 BBC WS Radio, OMA-Al Seela Nx Px E 35433
12120 31/12 1235 FEBC Radio Manila, Bocau Mx Px Hmo 45433
13845 31/12 1310 WWCR 3 Nashville, Usa-TN  Px rel. E 25422
15580 31/12 1403 Voice Of America, BOT-Selebi-Phik Nx E 35433

73 da N. Marabello
QTH  Messina, Sicilia (IT)
RX:  TECSUN PL-365
Ant.: esterna VHF orizzontale 065 gradi
https://acquamarina.blogspot.com

QSL Radio Zwarte Non

QSL Radio Zwarte Non 6325 KHz - Radio zwartenon@gmail.com con QSL elettronica allegata in 1 giorno. (R. PAVANELLO)


eQSL World Music Radio on 15805 kHz

DENMARK, 15805, World Music Radio, Randers, received eQSL for a  reception report about  transmission in it's new frequency, 15805 kHz, 1146-1405 UTC, December 30 with 200 watts power. The station reply with the eQSL in about 16 minutes, telling me: "yours is the FIRST reception report regarding 15805 kHz .. so I am pleased to send you an e-QSL"

Report send to: hartvig@wmr.dk

The station is on air again today, December 31, on 15805 kHz, 0700-2000 UTC
 
Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spain

IBC no more on shortwave

Con grande dispiacere annunciamo la chiusura delle nostre trasmissioni in onde corte a partire da oggi, 31 dicembre 2018.
I motivi sono molteplici: da quello economico, a quello organizzativo e non ultimo anche il fatto che già da qualche settimana non riusciamo ad avere un segnale che permetta la copertura con sufficiente comprensibilità delle nostre trasmissioni in Italia. 
Contiamo comunque di tornare al più presto in vostra compagnia. 
A tutti un augurio di un felice 2019!

IBC - ITALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION
With great regret we announce the closure of our shortwave transmissions starting today, 31 December 2018.
The reasons are economic, organizational and not least also the bad coverage of our signal in Italy lately.
However, we plan to return with you as soon as possible.
To all HNY!

Last hours of 621 and 1008 khz

On December 31st we'll be waving goodbye to 1008 (100kW) from Holland and RTBF International on 621 (300kW) from Belgium. In the case of 1008 kHz: December 31st only for UK/Ireland/Portugal, https://www.grootnieuwsradio.nl/k/n663/news/view/115687/41482/vanaf-22-30-oudejaarsuitzending-met-hans.html now says that they will wave goodbye to mediumwave at 01:00 (CET of course, = 0000 UTC). In Belgium things could get really interesting, considering that during the last days the 621 kHz carrier again stayed on air all night long. And once more: In no way this signal is still run with 300 kW. A two-digit figure appears to be realistic. (Kai Ludwig via WOR io group)

Pirate Radio Archive streaming 24-Dec to 2-Jan


The Irish pirate radio audio archive and oral history about the Irish pirate radio era has been streaming from 24 December at http://pirate.ie/archive/dec-24th-jan-2nd-streaming-live-online/  including interviews from the pirate.ie meet-up at the Ballsbridge Hotel, Dublin in October which commemorated 30th Anniversary of the end of Irish pirate era on 31st December 1988. There is also material available on demand. I particularly liked the 16-minute interview with "Bill Ebril transmitter man" about building MW transmitters for Irish pirate stations from 1970+ : http://pirate.ie/archive/interview-bill-ebril-transmitter-man
The streaming is scheduled until 2nd January. Great memories - I used to listen to MW Irish pirates across the water in Lancashire in the 1970s and 1980s. 73, (Alan Pennington, Dec 27, bdxc-news iog via DXLD)

Wolfgang Bueschel log dec 31

CUBA  Yes, Radio Rebelde 5025 kHz is back on air, when checked at 06 UT.
Same carrier strength like Bauta 5040 kHz 22 kHz wide !,
but less modulated,
? due to TX break yesterday night occurence - dropped down the mod now ?
'Condor Pasa' theme heard at 0552 UT. 20 kHz wideband audio signal.

some other logs this morning Dec 31:

5950 USA  WRMI extreme weak S=5-6 signal from Okeechobee here on that
channel, seemingly decreased to only 10 kW of power
- or total different antenna azimuth ?,
compared to other RMI outlet's these days.
9395 kHz Oldies via WRMI heard at 0600-0610 UT. S=9+20dB on NJ/NY states.

5829.986 kHz WTWW En sermon, 0556 UT.

7505.005 USA WRNO, Mandarin Chinese sermon at 0606 UT on Dec 31,
S=9+25dB signal in NJ-US,
few 'Jesus' mentions could be recognized talking.

UNID  5019.998 kHz signal string visible on remotes in Edmonton Alberta
(thanks Don Moman  VE6JY ! ), and in MI,NY,NJ states also.
Could it be Solomons Isl radio again ? 0634 UT Dec 31.

UNID  4915.130 kHz at 0548 UT, BRA station ?

UNID  6089.995 kHz noted at 06.51 UT in Ireland remote Atlantic Ocean coast.
Maybe Ethiopian drifted down ?

EQUATORIAL GUINEA  5005even, fair S=6 signal into NJ US,
RNacional Bata heard female Spanish presenter at 0550 UT.

CUBA  5999.999 kHz QUIVICAN San Felipe TITAN 250 kW outlet,
Arnie Coro's DXers Unlimited noted 0616 to 0623 UT,
S=9+30dB in NJ New Jersey, S=9+55dB in Edmonton Alberta CAN.

\\ 6165 S=9+15dB - but underneath co-ch NHK Radio Japan Tokyo Arabic sce
from TDF Issoudun relay equal level in NJ-US. S=9+65 powerhouse in Alb-CAN.

6100 kHz best audio in NY/NJ S=9+30dB, S=9+55dB in Alberta CAN,

6060.003 kHz S=9+5dB fluttery. S=9+60dB in Alb-CAN.

5040 kHz distorted audio quality, overmodulated, S=9+25dB in NJ,
S=9+55dB in Alb-CAN
Prof. Arnaldo Coro presenter of radio hobby px _DXers Unlimited'
til 06.22:55 UT, then followed by Mailbag Show,
'write to Radio Habana Cuba, P.O.Box 6240, Havanna, Cuba.'.

More than 6000 e- and snail mail letters received at Habana in 2018 year.
Lots of New Year greetings received from all over the world,
and also especially from US blockade country, from all US states.
Dan Henderson' mail from SC was mentioned as example...
Economic blockade states USA and Israel mentioned ...


Others:
9700.005 kHz TUR TRT Emirler Turkish S=7 at 0611 UT
5939.697 BRA  Voz Miss., S=7 at 0614 UT,
heavy splash from adjacent WWCR 5935 S=9+30dB,
latter best audio quality US station these days on shortwave.

Few Ascension Island bcast center relays noted:
5960even R Ndarason Internat, S=9+20dB,
but co-ch Radio Kuwait hundreds Hz odd heterodyne ...
6005even strongest ASC into Europe, S=9+30dB,
BBCWS sports review 2018, Tiger Woods, Wimbledon Tennis etc.
5975even BBC Hausa px, S=9,
7305even BBC Hausa px, S=9+15dB.
7345even BBC WS En classical music px, and Star Wars song mentioned,
S=9+25dB,
but suffered by ROU RRI European services in En and German
CO-CHANNEL !!
Very bad fq selection request by Babcock and RadioCom Romania FMO's
at the HFCC conference.
Lot's of nearby empty fq channels seen in 41 meterband at same time.

NIGERIA  7254.940 kHz at 0702 UT on Dec 31.
Abuja Voice of Nigeria appeared on the band,
but only S=5 signal in central Europe. Female presenter read nx.

and hospit. R Kaduna Nigeria program via TDF Issoudun relay
rental time block at 06.57 UT at S=9+35dB level,
strength depend how far the remote SDR rx post is in distance
to ISS antenna location - here in Europe.


At night made it to Europe at S=7 level:
7496even kHz Voice of Tibet via Yangi Yul TJK 2300-2330 UT Dec 30
did need 5 seconds to switch / move 12 kHz down to
7484even kHz Voice of Tibet via Yangi Yul TJK 2330-2400 UT Dec 30

[selected SDR options, span 12.5 kHz RBW 15.3 Hertz]
(wb  df5sx, wwdxc BC-DX TopNews Dec 31)

WMR, 15805, strong for moments here in Lugo now

DENMARK, 15805, WMR, Randers, 1230-1245, 31-12, pop songs in English id. "World Music Radio", strong for moments with fading. 45323, and 35312.
 

Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spain

Log in Lugo

Agenda DX 31/12/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
WABC, Gran Bretagna 990-1017 Khz (1990)
Eleven Seventy, Gran Bretagna 1170 Khz (1993)
La Voz del Cinaruco, Colombia 4865 Khz (1968)
BBC Radio Solent 999 Khz (1970)

domenica 30 dicembre 2018

Wolfgang Bueschel log dec 31

The 9610.024 kHz morning sce from TRT Emirler towards Asia and Far East see below.

Others to mention from Seoul Rep of [South] Korea log
21.45 til 22.20 UT, on Dec 29

9655DRM mode CHN  CNR Urumqi  at 21.55 UT,    S=9+10dB
6030DRM mode CHN  CNR Beijing at 22.17 UT,    S=9+30dB
9610.024 TUR  TRT Emirler in En, at 21.58 UT, S=9+20dB
         scheduled 21.30-22.25 UT
7410even CVA  Vatican Radio, Santa Maria di Galeria, in Mandarin 22.05 UT
         scheduled 22.00-22.30 UT, S=9+25dB in KOR.  and \\
6185even CVA  Vatican Radio, Santa Maria di Galeria, in Mandarin 22.13 UT
         scheduled 22.00-22.30 UT, S=9+30dB in KOR
7299.992 UAE  BBCWS En nx, scheduled 22.00-23.00 UT, S=9+15dB at 22.08 UT

[selected SDR options, span 12.5 kHz RBW 15.3 Hertz]
(wb  df5sx, wwdxc BC-DX TopNews Dec 29)


Others to mention from Seoul Rep of [South] Korea log
01.30 til 02.30 UT, on Dec 30

4010.220 KGZ  Kyrgyz RADIO 1Birinchi Radio, Bishkek Krasnaya Rechka,
         S=9+30dB in Seoul KOR, 01.30 UT Dec 30.
4500even CHN  PBS Xinjiang Urumqi, Mongolian, S=9+20dB, 01.35 UT
         sweet song, female singer.
4764.962 TJK  Tajik Radio from Yangi Yul site, S=9+20dB, 01.39 UT,
         that's their 3rd TX, which is always odd fq on lower sideband.
4810.008 IND  AIR Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, Hindi nx, S=9+20dB 01.42 UT
4910.003 IND  AIR Jaipur, Rajasthan, S=9+10dB at 01.44 UT
4920 kHz bad mixture of
4919.962 CHN  CNR  Xizang PBS, Lhasa, Tibet, Tibetan, S=9+15dB 01.47 UT
4920.001 IND  AIR Chennai, Tamil Nadu, Southern sce, Tamil/Hindi/En,
         S=9+15dB at 01.48 UT.
         Checked both in Seoul, Delhi and Qatar remote sites.
4950even IND  R Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, Northern sce in
         E/Hindi/Urdu/Kashmiri/Sanskrit languages, according TBS-20.
         Subcontinental mx, S=9+25dB at 01.50 UT.
4980even CHN  PBS Xinjiang Urumqi, in Uygur language, S=9+20dB 01.52 UT,
         adjacent fq BUZZ data signal 4979.721 / .724 kHz.
5009.996 IND  AIR Thiruvananthapuram Muttathura, Kerala, Southern Sce,
         Hindi, S=9 at 01.54 UT.
5040even IND  AIR Jeypore, Odisha Eastern Sce, in En/Hindi/Odia/Sanskrit,
         S=9+5dB at 01.57 UT.
5060even CHN  PBS Xinhiang Urumqi, Mandarin language, S=9+20dB at 01.58 UT
6039.974 CHN  PBS Nei Menggu, Huhuot, Nei Menggu, S=8 at 02.10 UT,
         ID "Ovor Mongolyn Ardyn Radio Khoroonoos yar'zh bayna" acc TBS-20
6079.992 CHN  CNR  PBS Hulun Buir, Hailar, Mongolian, S=6 at 02.14 UT
6099.999 KRE  KCBS Pyongyang, March mx what else, S=9+25dB at 02.18 UT
         To mention: audio only on UPPER sideband visible, carrier+USBmode
6145even CHN  CNR PBS Qinghai, Xining, S=7 in Seoul at 02.21 UT.
         ID according TBS-20: ID: "Qinghai Renmin Guangbo Dientai".
6170.094 UAE  FEBC Manila, Urdu sce, S=6 signal strength,
         but S=9+20dB in remote Delhi IND SDR rx at 02.26 UT.
6200even CHN  Xizang PBS, Lhasa, Tibet, "Holy Tibet" in Tibetian.
         Female singer, local pop like. S=7 at 02.28 UT on Dec 30.

[selected SDR options, span 12.5 kHz RBW 15.3 Hertz]
(wb  df5sx, wwdxc BC-DX TopNews Dec 30)

Media & Tech - 30/12/2018

Glenn Hauser logs December +29-30, 2018

** CUBA. 6000, Dec 30 at 0144, song in Spanish from presumed English service of RHC is just barely modulated; slightly louder on // 6165. Something`s always wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA. 6140, Dec 30 at 0616, RHC English is JBA up to S6, i.e. leapfrog mixing product of 6060 over 6100 another 40 kHz higher. More of them also weaker but audible now: // 6230 which is 6100 over 6165 another 65 kHz higher; and 6270 which is 6060 over 6165 another 105 kHz higher. But none involving 6000 which is from a different transmitter site. Something`s always wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** MEXICO. 540, Dec 20 at 1333, XETX, La Ranchera de Paquimé, Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua, plugging now being also on FM (90.5). New IRCA Mexican Log says per IFT it will be staying on AM; as usual manages to dominate 540 here around SRS (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NORTH AMERICA. 6954.0-USB, Dec 30 at 0125, talk and guitar at S9, into hard rock live performance with a crowd. 0140 SSTV, 0142 back to concert; recheck 0208 still going with heavy percussion S9+20, 0213 cut to short SSTV and off. These logs say it was Skippy Radio:https://www.hfunderground.com/board/index.php/topic,49512.0.html based solely on one of the SSTV images; no one nor I reported hearing any audible IDs (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** OKLAHOMA [and non]. 640, Dec 30 at 1334 UT, dead air from KWPN Moore, as usual around this time on Sunday mornings, facilitating KFI talk and something else (Glenn Hauser, Enid, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** TURKEY. 12035.74, Dec 30 at 1407, VOT English with Turkish music is S5-S7 and off-frequency; while 11815.0, VOT Turkish with Turkish music is quite stronger, S6-S9 and not much off-frequency (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 4630-USB, UT Sun Dec 30 at 0200, must be CAP net as heard a few times before. Strictly struxured, YL utters encrypted message, each group twice, in clear fonetix, titled 4JV8L: MKGKS 3JCN3 SKF7K B5QV9 SQMNF DGWFV. Her OM contact then reads it back, each group once. On contrary, their own tactical calls are not clearly copied, ending with two numbers, like Reindeer? 50. More messages follow. What`s so secret about Civil Air Patrol? Makes it hush-hush para-military (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. WORLD OF RADIO 1962 monitoring: confirmed Saturday December 29 at 2200 on new WRMI 9955 airing, fair. Also confirmed UT Sunday December 30 at 0517 on WA0RCR, 1860-AM, MO, about 8 minutes in so started very late circa 0509; earlier chex at 0433, 0456 found prolonged ham radio shows. Next:
2130 UT Sunday    WRMI    7780 to NE
0230 UT Monday    WRMI    5950 to WNW, 9395 to NNW
0400vUT Monday    WBCQ   *5130v Area 51 to WSW
0430 UT Monday    WRMI   *9955 to SSE
0930 UT Monday    Unique  5045-LSB low-power NSW Australia
2330 UT Monday    WRMI   *9955 to SSE [OR, I hope, NEW #1963]
* also webcast; direct linx to these and many others at:

Complete updated WOR sked, all affiliates, satellite, webcast, AM&FM:
http://www.worldofradio.com/radioskd.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 5950 // 7780 // 9395, Sat Dec 29 at 2203, whatever the skeds 
may show, these three WRMIs are all running Oldies Xmasmx.

5950 // 9395, Sun Dec 30 at 0611, more Xmasmx Oldies, not WRN and not RFI (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 5850, UT Sun Dec 30 at 0143, WRMI-12 with World Music fill, as skedgrid shows System F at 01-02 UT with blank blox on Sat, Sun, Wed, Thu; and one half or the other on Mon, Tue (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 9330.113, Dec 30 at 1412, TOMBS via WBCQ achieves its typical off-frequenciness, despite having reached 9330.004, Dec 29 at 0100 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 4840, UT Sun Dec 30 at 0150, WWCR with `VORW`; John is introspectively musing about his experiences as a YouTube producer. Says this is hour one of two, but cut off abruptly at 0200 by WWCR for its next show, `Truth House with E. C. Fulcher` (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. Re: ``7335, Dec 22 [not 23 as in original report] at 2319, sermon in American about Jesus, Xmas. Didn`t realize WHRI is here, but HFCC registered daily 22-24, 250 kW at 47 degrees. Thisaway, it`s only S9-S7. In fact, WHR does not know about it either, missing from: https://familybroadcastingcorporation.com/whr/frequencies/ nor is 7.335 one of the frequencies in their drop-down search list, nor is it on the program schedules for Angels 1, 2, 5 or 6!``

Family Broadcasting Corporation, what`s that?? ``Family Broadcasting Corporation (formerly LeSEA Broadcasting Corporation) exists to reach out to the lost across the globe and to provide you and your family with an alternative to viewing secular television programs``. So no more LeSEA; when did that change? Maybe they got tired of having to explain/teach how to spell correctly that strange name. For the historical record, it meant: LEster Sumrall Evangelistic Association.

Jari Savolainen replied: ``Re LeSea into Family BC; OpenCorporates give the name change date as 5 Sep 2018``

Ivo Ivanov replied: ``Angel 1 7335 kHz is new frequency 2200-2400 Sat/Sun, ex 9505 kHz, probably from Dec. 2. From March 2 will be again 9505`` (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1962, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. Trans-Pacific JBA MW carrier search, Dec 30 at 1320, not a full bandscan but checking some likely spots: 837 (maybe megawatt CNR5 in Fujian), while the major NHKs are not audible); 1098-west, surely Marshall Islands carrier. At 1329 now I have traces from the NW of NHK on 828, 774, 693, 594; and Korea South on 1566 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 1635 UT December 30

W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-364

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” W4HM Daily HF-MF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast.

It’s the only accurate daily global HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on the planet.

I'm a heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at


I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF-MF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast can be found in my Facebook account at


and in my Twitter account at


Last but not least here is my new HF-MF radio wave propagation web page where you can sign up to receive this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast via email.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.


W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century. Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#364 Issued Sunday December 30, 2018 at 1545 UTC
 
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were

67.0 69.0 69.5.

There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (SFI) below 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 0.

There had been 14 consecutive days with an official sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

In 2018 there had been 220 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of

3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged between

15 & 6,

which had been at an unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst) ranged between

-8 & +22 nT.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed was

587 & 449 km/s.

GLOBAL (HF) HIGH FREQUENCY (3000-30000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 30, 2018- steady.

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Dec 31, 2018- steady.

HF-MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Jan 1, 2019- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

We are now in the winter season northern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season.
The approximate 11000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and the ions more concentrated.
The approximately 3000-10000 kHz frequency range often stays open for DX all throughout the day due to a weaker D and E layer and therefore less RF signal absorption.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

Southern Hemisphere HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

We are now in the summer season southern hemisphere HF-MF radio wave propagation season.

The 14000- 30000 kHz frequency range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere is higher and the layer ions less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-29700 kHz frequency ranges will open via short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial propagation (TEP).

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9+10 at night and S3-5 at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+15 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S1-3 at night and S5-8 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.


GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ) RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S9-+5
*North <-> South To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S6-8
+South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S9+1

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
S9+1
*South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800 km
S6-8
+North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
S9+1

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude
S7-8
Mid Latitude
S9+10
Low latitude
S4-6

FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km-

High Latitude
S2-4
Mid Latitude
S6-7
Low latitude
S3-5


This HF-MF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP HF-MF radio wave propagation prediction software.
I wrote it beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it still can’t be distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA CAP and Prop Lab.
I do check the actual band conditions at my location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

The MF broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on 50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional vertical antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF-MF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

THE FOLLOWING IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR, SPACE, GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND IONOSPHERE GOINGS ON. ALSO HF AND MF RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS AND FORECASTING.
Globally HF-MF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the HF-MF radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency (HF) radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens only rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2 MeV (2+1), geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels greater than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), hard x-rays and galactic cosmic rays.
There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul MF DX contact. As a MF RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4.
Unfortunately the simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one maximum distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
All 13 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best global medium frequency (MF) radio wave propagation possible.
The simplest way to look at medium frequencies (MF) with respect to radio wave propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is poor the majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number under 100, under 70 best.
3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the 100 for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic proton flux levels no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.
11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards zero.
12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF-MF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF-MF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF/MF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF-MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.