venerdì 7 luglio 2017

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period July 7 - July 13, 2017


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.0-B1.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 69-80 f.u.
Events: class C (0-4/period), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-65

Martina Exnerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 7 - July 13, 2017


Quiet: Jul 7, 11 - 12
Unsettled: Jul 8 - 9, 12 - 13
Active:    Jul 10, 12 - 13
Minor storm: possible Jul 9 - 10,  13
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Next week, we expect two active episodes. The first one with possible
minor stroming event is expectable between Jul 9/10. Then, we expect
geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled conditions and, at the
end of the forecasted period, we expect new active episode (about Jun 13).

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)


Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 7 - August 3, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on July 11, 18, 25 - 26, August 1
mostly quiet on July 7, 17, 19 - 21, 24, 29 - 31
quiet to unsettled July 9 - 10, 16, August 2 - 3
quiet to active on July 8, 12 - 13, 15, 22 - 23, 27
active to disturbed on July 14, 28

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on July (8,) 9 - 12, 14 - 17, (18, 21,) 22 - 24, (25,) 30 - 31

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement
and/or lower reliability of prediction.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since January 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz