sabato 3 giugno 2017

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin - CORRECTED! Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 2 - 28, 2017

Solar activity forecast for the period June 2 - June 8, 2017


Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A7.0-B4.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 69-90 f.u.
Events: class C (0-7/day), class M (0-5/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 11-75

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 2 - June 8, 2017


Quiet: Jun 4 - 6
Unsettled: Jun 2 - 4, 6 - 8
Active:   possible Jun 3, 5, 7
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
May 28, we observed in our latitudes minor storm event, local K-index has
reached value of 5.
Next week, we expect geomagnetic activity decrease, therfore, at most
quiet to unsettled conditions. As mentined above, some isolated active
events are still possible but we do not expect K = 4 exceeded.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 2 - June 28, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on June 2, 7, 9, 20 - 21, 27 - 28
mostly quiet on June 17, 19
quiet to unsettled June 5 - 6, 14, 18, 22, 26
quiet to active on June 3 - 4, 8, 10, 12 - 13, 23, 25
active to disturbed on June 11, (15 -) 16, 24

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on June (3, 5 - 6,) 12 - 19, 26 - 27

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction.

Note: as I will be sailing along the Bata channel next week, the next
Geomagnetic activity forecast will be issued up to the second week,
ie on June 15.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz