:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 27 0452 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 20 - 26 March 2017
Solar activity was very low during through 24
March. However, by 25
March, a region began to develop in the NE quadrant and
was numbered
as Region 2644 (N12, L=054, class/area, Dao/050 on 26 March).
As
this region grew, it produced multiple B-class flares as well as
a
C1/Sf at 27/0000 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were
observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 20-21 March and
reached high levels
from 22-26 March. The largest flux of the period was
19,100 pfu
observed at 23/1735 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged
from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
conditions. The period began under nominal
solar wind conditions
with solar wind speed near 310 km/s and total field
near 4 nT. This
continued until a co-rotating interactive region (CIR)
preceding a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
became
geoeffective starting around 21/0027 UTC. Total field increased to
a
maximum of 18 nT by 21/0722 UTC while the Bz component
deflected
southward to -17 nT at 21/0607 UTC. Solar wind speed began
to
increase beginning at 20/2349 UTC and reached a maximum of 755
km/s
22/1513 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet conditions
on
20 March, quiet to G1 (Minor) storming on 21 March, and unsettled
to G1
(Minor) storming on 22 March. By 23 March, a secondary
increase in total
field and solar wind speed was observed. Total
field increased from 2 nT to
10 nT while the solar wind speed
increased from 550 km/s to near 730 km/s.
From 24 March through the
end of the period, solar wind conditions gradually
returned to
nominal levels. However, late on 26 March, an increase in
density
and total field was observed around 2000 UTC followed by a
solar
sector boundary crossing into the negative sector suggesting
the
onset of a subsequent CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS.
The
geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions on 23 March,
quiet
to unsettled levels on 24 March, and quiet levels on 25-26
March.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 27 MARCH - 22 APRIL
2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a
chance
for isolated C-class flares from Region 2644 during its
transit
across the visible disk from 27 March - 04 April.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels with high levels likely
from 29 March - 11 April and again from 18-22
April due to CH HSS
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected
to be at unsettled to active
levels from 27 March - 06 April and 17-19 April
with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely on 27-31 March and 17-18 April. G2
(Moderate)
storm levels are likely on 28-29 March. Heightened activity
during
these periods is due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet
conditions
are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2017 Mar 27 0452 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-03-27
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Mar 27 78
25 5
2017 Mar 28 78 40 6
2017 Mar 29
78 35 6
2017 Mar 30 78 20 5
2017
Mar 31 75 18 5
2017 Apr 01 75
12 4
2017 Apr 02 75 8 3
2017 Apr 03
73 16 4
2017 Apr 04 73 12 4
2017
Apr 05 71 15 4
2017 Apr 06 71
12 3
2017 Apr 07 71 5 2
2017 Apr 08
71 5 2
2017 Apr 09 71 5 2
2017
Apr 10 71 5 2
2017 Apr 11 71
5 2
2017 Apr 12 71 5 2
2017 Apr 13
71 5 2
2017 Apr 14 71 5 2
2017
Apr 15 73 5 2
2017 Apr 16 73
5 2
2017 Apr 17 73 24 5
2017 Apr 18
75 25 5
2017 Apr 19 75 10 3
2017
Apr 20 75 5 2
2017 Apr 21 75
5 2
2017 Apr 22 75 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
