lunedì 6 marzo 2017

Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 February-05 March 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels. The strongest flare of the
period, a B9, was produced by Region 2641 (N15, L=041, class/area
Cao/100 on 28 Feb).

A ten degree long filament, centered at approximately S21W35,
erupted from the solar disk around 27/1421 UTC. A subsequent CME was
observed in SOHO C2 imagery. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested no Earth-directed component was present.

On 05 Feb, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near
the location of N10E33 around 05/1200 UTC. SOHO C2 imagery displayed
a faint, slow-moving eruption that appeared to be associated with
the dimming. At the time of this writing, analysis is ongoing to
determine if the likelihood of an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background to moderate levels on 27 Feb and normal background
levels on 28 Feb. From Mar 01-05, an increase to moderate to high
levels was observed in response to the onset and persistent
influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels
from 27 Feb through the beginning of 01 Mar. Unsettled levels
transitioned to G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a peak activity level
of G2 (Moderate) by the end of the day on 01 Mar due to the onset of
southern polar connected, negative polarity CH HSS. The CIR enhanced
total magnetic field strength to maximum value of 21 nT by midday on
01 Mar. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from around 390 km/s at
the beginning of the day to 750 km/s by the end of the 01 Mar. As
the CH HSS persisted, unsettled to G1 (Minor) activity was observed
on 02 Mar, quiet to G1 (Minor) activity on 03-04 Mar, and finally
quiet to active conditions were observed on 05 Mar. Solar wind
speeds were still elevated, mostly between 600-650 km/s, by the end
of the period.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 06 MARCH - 01 APRIL 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 06-13 Mar, 19-20 Mar, 24 Mar, and
29 Mar - 01 Apr due to influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs.
Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-18 Mar, 21-23 Mar, and
25-28 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2
(Moderate) levels over the next 27 days. Unsettled conditions are
likely on 09-10 Mar, 15 Mar, 18-19 Mar, and 24 Mar. Active
conditions are likely on 06 Mar, 17 Mar, 23 Mar, and 01 Apr. G1
(Minor) conditions are likely on 16 Mar and 30-31 Mar. G2 (Moderate)
conditions are likely on 28-29 Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic
activity are due to the influences of multiple, anticipated,
recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the
remaining days of the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 06 0431 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-03-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Mar 06      73           8          3
2017 Mar 07      73           5          2
2017 Mar 08      73           5          2
2017 Mar 09      73           8          3
2017 Mar 10      72           8          3
2017 Mar 11      72           5          2
2017 Mar 12      74           5          2
2017 Mar 13      74           5          2
2017 Mar 14      74           5          2
2017 Mar 15      74          10          3
2017 Mar 16      74          20          5
2017 Mar 17      76          15          4
2017 Mar 18      78          10          3
2017 Mar 19      78           8          3
2017 Mar 20      78           5          2
2017 Mar 21      78           8          3
2017 Mar 22      78          10          3
2017 Mar 23      78          15          4
2017 Mar 24      76           8          3
2017 Mar 25      75           5          2
2017 Mar 26      75           5          2
2017 Mar 27      75           5          2
2017 Mar 28      75          35          6
2017 Mar 29      75          30          6
2017 Mar 30      73          20          5
2017 Mar 31      73          18          5
2017 Apr 01      73          12          4
(SWPC via DXLD)