martedì 24 gennaio 2017

Giella Global HF Propagation Forecast

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast Issued on Sunday January 22, 2017 at 1500 UTC
Sunday, January 22, 2017 3:29 PM

For my hamateur radio and SWL friends around the globe:

Feel free to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic
weather discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also feel free to leave a "LIKE" every time you access this discussion and
forecast as it's the only method I have to gauge the usefulness of it.

Issued on Sunday January 22, 2017 at 1500 UTC

Global HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast

HAMATEUR & SW BROADCAST HF BANDS:

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- very poor at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- very poor at night and poor at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION-

80-60 (75-60) meters- poor at night and very poor at day,

40-30 (41-25) meters- fair at night and poor at day,

20-17 (22-16) meters- fair at night and fair at day,

15 (13) meters- poor at night and fair at day,

12-10 (11) meters- very poor at night and very poor at day.

Received RF signal strength scale-

Very Good- +1 over S9  Or Greater
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0

Meter Band Equivalents
Ham & SWL
160->   90
80->     75
60->     60
40->     49, 41
30->     31, 25
20->     22, 19
17->    16, 15
15->    13
12,10-> 11

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable by the average
radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions also change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Solar Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On

Saturday January 21, 2017-

Solar activity was high.

Earth's magnetic field was unsettled.

The solar flux index (SFI) was 83.9 83.2 83.9.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 67. This was the highest daily
SSN since November 30, 2016.

In 2017 there were 10 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.

In 2016 there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.

Sunspot group #12625 was located near N01W47, with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Sunspot group #12626 was located near N08W35, with a simple alpha magnetic
signature.

Recently emerged sunspot group #12627 was located near N07E16, with a simple
beta magnetic signature.

Recently emerged sunspot group #12628 was located near N12E34, with a more
complex beta-gamma magnetic signature. It is capable of releasing medium
sized M class solar flares.

There were one as of yet unnumbered sunspot group located near

N17E13.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24
and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily sunspot number will dramatically
increase. Eventually most every day for many many months will see a 0.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years
and that came forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would
be virtually non existent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that
occurred in the early 1800's.

One earth facing small C9.0 class solar flare occurred. It was associated
with newly emerged sunspot group #12628.

No earth directed coronal mass ejections (CME) occurred.

No earth directed collapsing magnetic filament eruptions occurred.

The 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) which was at unsettled to quiet
geomagnetic conditions 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 3.

The maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between 18 and 4,
which was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The background x-ray flux was B2.43.

The horizontal component (Bz) of earth's magnetic field was -0.1 nT south.

No energetic proton events greater than 10 MeV (10+0) occurred.

The maximum and minimum solar wind speed was 497 and 447 km/s.

There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole #786
(#780).

There was a recurrent trans equatorial earth facing coronal hole #787
(#781).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Kp geomagnetic indices are-
0-2- quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-
0-7- quiet
8-15 unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer
critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the
capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government organizations and educational
institutions, to produce my comprehensive radio wave propagation forecast.
This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer
$$$ (including mine).

However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas
F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free to redistribute this solar, space and geomagnetic weather
discussion and HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in it's entirety and give me credit for it.

Also solar, space and geomagnetic weather forecasting is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. (Giella, Jan 22, DX LISTENING DIGEST)