venerdì 9 dicembre 2016

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period December 9 - December 15, 2016


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A6.5-B1.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 60-90 f.u.
Events: class C (0-2/day), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-55

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 9 - December 15, 2016


Quiet: Dec 12 - 15
Unsettled: Dec 9 - 11
Active: Dec 9 - 10
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
We expect active conditions at Dec 9 and 10. At Dec 11, we expect
maximally unsetled episode.
Next days, we expect solar wind speed decrease and return to quiet to
unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 9 - January 7, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on December 14 - 17, 29 - 31, January 1
mostly quiet on December 13, 18, 27 - 28, January 2
quiet to unsettled on December 11 - 12, 26
quiet to active on December 9 - 10, 19, 23 - 25, January 3
active to disturbed on December 8, 20 - 22, January 4

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on December 9 - 10 (11, 14 - 15, 18 - 20), January 2 - 3

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz