giovedì 22 dicembre 2016

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period December 23 - December 29, 2016


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A4.5-B1.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-85 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/day), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-45

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 23 - December 29, 2016


Quiet: Dec 26 - 29
Unsettled: Dec 23 - 26
Active: Dec 23
Minor storm: 0
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Maximal geomagnetic activity has been observed at Wednesday, Dec 21. The
local K-index reached K=5 for Budkov observatory.
Currently, unsettled to active conditions are actual. We expect unsettled
conditions till Dec 25, than, during vaning of the HSS solar wind, we
expect at Dec 26 decrease geomagnetic activity to quiet to unsettled.
Rest of the forecasted period, we expect at most quiet geomagnetic
conditions only with possible isolated unsettled event.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 23 - January 18, 2017


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on December 30 - 31, January 1, 8 - 11
mostly quiet on December 27 - 28, January 2, 12, 15 - 16
quiet to unsettled on January 2 - 3, 14, 29
quiet to active on December 23 - 26, January 4, 6 - 7, 13, 17
active to disturbed on January 5, 18

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on December 23 - 25, January 3 - 8, 17 - 18

Remark:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz