lunedì 26 dicembre 2016

Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 26 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 December 2016

Solar activity was at background levels through the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the reporting period with a peak flux of
29,524 pfu on 24/1830 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet levels on 19 Dec and mostly
quiet levels with an isolated period of unsettled conditions on 20
Dec. Activity increased to active with an isolated period of G2
(Moderate) storm levels late on 21 Dec due to the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS increasing wind speeds from around 350 km/s
to over 650 km/s. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) was observed
early on 22 Dec before geomagnetic activity decreased to unsettled
and activity conditions through 23 Dec. 24 Dec underwent a further
decrease with quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the day
despite wind speeds maintaining between 600-750 km/s. Quiet to
unsettled conditions were isolated by frequent periods of active
levels on 25 Dec as the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS
continued to keep solar wind speeds enhanced to around 700 km/s.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 26 DEC 2016 - 21 JAN 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels from 26-29 Dec, 31 Dec-02 Jan, 04-13
Jan, and 18-21 Jan due to multiple CH HSS influences; normal to
moderate levels are expected on 30 Dec, 03 Jan, and 14-17 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
levels on 26 Dec due to CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) conditions are
also likely on 04-05 Jan and 17-19 Jan. Active conditions are likely
on 30 Dec, 06-07 Jan, and 20-21 Jan. Unsettled conditions are likely
on 31 Dec, 02-03 Jan, 08 Jan, and 14 Jan. All anticipated
enhancements in field activity are due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 26 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-12-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Dec 26      73          12          3
2016 Dec 27      73           5          2
2016 Dec 28      75           5          2
2016 Dec 29      75           5          2
2016 Dec 30      75          15          4
2016 Dec 31      75          10          3
2017 Jan 01      77           5          2
2017 Jan 02      77           8          3
2017 Jan 03      77          10          3
2017 Jan 04      77          20          5
2017 Jan 05      77          22          5
2017 Jan 06      79          16          4
2017 Jan 07      79          14          4
2017 Jan 08      79           6          3
2017 Jan 09      79           5          2
2017 Jan 10      77           5          2
2017 Jan 11      77           5          2
2017 Jan 12      77           5          2
2017 Jan 13      77           5          2
2017 Jan 14      75          10          3
2017 Jan 15      75           5          2
2017 Jan 16      75           5          2
2017 Jan 17      75          25          5
2017 Jan 18      75          20          5
2017 Jan 19      75          25          5
2017 Jan 20      73          18          4
2017 Jan 21      73          18          4
(SWPC via DXLD)