At 0002 UTC on November 9, this
geomagnetic warning was distributed by Australia’s Space Forecast Centre:
SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
WARNING 16/48 ISSUED AT 0002UT/09 NOVEMBER 2016 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST
CENTRE.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM AND POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW FROM CME
ASSOCIATED WITH 05NOV FILAMENT ON 09-10 NOVEMBER 2016
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
09 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
10 Nov: Active
Later on the same day, the USAF Space
Weather operation Ap forecast predicts the disturbance perhaps a few days later.
The USAF forecast was issued about 21 hours later than the Australian forecast.
Now we have an updated forecast from Thursday, November 10.
At 0005 UTC on November 11 a similar
warning was issued.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 11-12 NOVEMBER 2016.
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Nov: Unsettled with possible Active
to Minor Storm periods
12 Nov: Active to Minor Storm
Average daily sunspot number over the
past week (November 3-9) doubled from 9.1 to 18.7, compared to the previous
seven days. Average daily solar flux changed only marginally from 77.5 to 76.9.
Geomagnetic indices were lower, with average planetary A index changing from
18.1 to 6.4, and mid-latitude A index (measured at Wallops Island, Virginia)
moved from 13.4 to 4.3.
