:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 03 0200 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity
26 September - 02 October 2016
Solar activity was at
predominately very low levels with an isolated
C1/Sf flare observed at
27/0748 UTC from Region 2597 (S13, L=349,
class/area Dsc/120 on 24 Sep). This
region also produced numerous
background flares during the period. The only
other spotted region
on the disk, new Region 2598 (N12, L=172, class/area
Bxo/010 on 02
Oct), produced a few background flares late in the period.
Other activity consisted of a pair of CMEs that were observed
lifting
off the NE limb on 01 Oct. At 01/0139 UTC, a 38 degree long
filament erupted
that was centered near N26E27. C2 LASCO imagery
observed a CME off the east
limb, first visible at 01/0248 UTC.
Later in the day at 01/1340 UTC, coronal
dimming was observed in the
NE quadrant with an associated CME off the east
limb, first visible
in C2 LASCO imagery at 01/1424 UTC. WSA-Enlil model
output suggested
a possible weak, glancing impact at Earth mid to late on 04
Oct.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels
on 26 Sep, moderate levels on 27 Sep, high levels on
28-29 Sep and 02 Oct and
very high levels on 30 Sep and 01 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity was
dominated during the period by a
large, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Field activity began the
period on 26 Sep at unsettled to active levels due
to a period of
prolonged southward Bz to -10 Nt. Wind speeds were in the
400-425
km/s range through midday on 26 Sep when a gradual increase to
near
475 km/s was observed by early on 27 Sep. Through 27 Sep, wind
speeds
continued to increase to end the day near 700 km/s as the CH
HSS became
geoeffective. Bz was variable between +/- 9 nT. The
geomagnetic field reacted
with unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
levels with isolated major storm
(G2-Moderate) levels.
From 28 Sep through midday on 30 Sep, wind speeds
remained in the
700 km/s range while the Bz component was variable at +/- 5
nT.
Field conditions remained at predominately unsettled to G1
storm
levels with isolated G2 storm periods observed on 28 and 29
Sep.
From midday on 30 Sep through 02 Oct, wind speeds slowly decreased
to
end the summary period near 475 km/s. Bz remained variable
between +/- 5 nT.
Field conditions responded with quiet to active
levels with some isolated G1
storm periods.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 03 - 29
OCTOBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a
slight
chance for C-class flares through the outlook period.
No
proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels
from 03-06 Oct, 18 Oct and 24-28 Oct
and very high levels 27-29 Oct due to
the anticipated influence of
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate
levels are expected
for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic
field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 03-05 Oct,
16-18 Oct and 23-29 Oct. G1(Minor) field
activity is possible on 17 Oct and
23-29 Oct with G2 (Moderate)
activity possible on 24-26 Oct. This activity is
due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Generally
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the
remainder
of the period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 03 0200 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-10-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 03 80
12 4
2016 Oct 04 80 15 4
2016 Oct 05
85 10 4
2016 Oct 06 85 5 2
2016
Oct 07 90 5 2
2016 Oct 08 90
5 2
2016 Oct 09 90 5 2
2016 Oct 10
90 5 2
2016 Oct 11 90 5 2
2016
Oct 12 90 5 2
2016 Oct 13 90
5 2
2016 Oct 14 90 5 2
2016 Oct 15
95 8 3
2016 Oct 16 95 10 4
2016
Oct 17 95 20 5
2016 Oct 18 95
8 3
2016 Oct 19 90 5 2
2016 Oct 20
90 5 2
2016 Oct 21 90 5 2
2016
Oct 22 85 5 2
2016 Oct 23 85
20 5
2016 Oct 24 85 35 6
2016 Oct 25
85 35 6
2016 Oct 26 85 35 6
2016
Oct 27 80 20 5
2016 Oct 28 80
15 5
2016 Oct 29 80 15 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)
