:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 12 0323 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 05 - 11 September 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels on
05-11 Sep. Region 2591
(N05, L=144, Cro/025 on 11 Sep) produced a B9.6 flare
at 10/1920
UTC, the strongest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed were observed during the period.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
very high levels on 05 Sep and high levels from
06-11 Sep due to CH
HSS influence. The largest flux value of the period was
56,842 pfu
observed at 05/1815 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at
quiet to minor storm levels on 05
Sep due to a period of prolonged southward
Bz during the waning
phase of a CH HSS. Solar wind speed continued to decline
over the
period from a high near 600 km/s to 340 km/s by the end of
the
period. Activity decreased to quiet to active conditions on 06 Sep
and
to quiet to unsettled conditions on 07 Sep. A final increase to
quiet to
active conditions was observed on 08 Sep before quiet
conditions dominated
for the remainder of the period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 12 SEPTEMBER-8 OCTOBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels on 12-20 Sep and 26-28
Sep. High levels expected on 21-25 Sep, 29 Sep
- 01 Oct, and 06-08
Oct. Very high levels are likely between 02-05 Oct. High
and very
high levels are anticipated to result from recurrent CH HSS events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to
active
levels on 12 Sep as a solar sector boundary crossing is
anticipated
to transition into a weak, negative polarity, CH HSS. As the CH
HSS
influence wanes, quiet to unsettled levels are likely over 13-14
Sep.
Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16 Sep under an ambient
solar wind
environment. 17-21 Sep will likely to be at quiet to
active conditions as a
negative polarity CH HSS influences the
near-Earth environment. Quiet
conditions are again expected from
22-25 Sep. 26-27 Sep are likely to be at
unsettled to active
conditions from a small, positive polarity, CH HSS. 28-30
Sep are
likely to see field active range from unsettled to major
storm
levels from a strong, positive polarity, CH HSS. As the CH
HSS
influence wanes, unsettled to minor storm levels are likely on 01
Oct
and quiet to active levels are expected from 02-05 Oct. Quiet
conditions are
expected to return over 06-08 Oct under a nominal
solar wind regime.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016
Sep 12 0323 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather
Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-09-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Sep 12 86
15 4
2016 Sep 13 82 8 3
2016 Sep 14
80 8 3
2016 Sep 15 80 5 2
2016
Sep 16 75 5 2
2016 Sep 17 75
12 4
2016 Sep 18 70 12 4
2016 Sep 19
70 12 4
2016 Sep 20 75 15 4
2016
Sep 21 75 10 3
2016 Sep 22 75
5 2
2016 Sep 23 75 5 2
2016 Sep 24
75 5 2
2016 Sep 25 72 5 2
2016
Sep 26 78 15 4
2016 Sep 27 80
8 3
2016 Sep 28 78 38 6
2016 Sep 29
78 40 6
2016 Sep 30 78 42 6
2016
Oct 01 82 30 5
2016 Oct 02 82
18 4
2016 Oct 03 80 15 4
2016 Oct 04
80 12 4
2016 Oct 05 80 10 3
2016
Oct 06 80 5 2
2016 Oct 07 80
5 2
2016 Oct 08 82 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
