giovedì 16 giugno 2016

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period June 17 - June 23, 2016


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A7.5-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 70-100 f.u.
Events: class C (0-3/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 10-60

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 17 - June 23, 2016


Quiet: Jun 18 - 21
Unsettled: Jun 17, 22 - 23
Active:  possible Jun 16 and 23
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
We expect active conditions at the ranges of forecasted week. Today
(Thursday, June 16), an isolated active episode is possible. The same
conditions are possible about June 22 - 23.
Between these possible episodes, we expect at most quiet to unsettled
conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 17 - July 13, 2016


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on June 21 - 22
mostly quiet on June 19 - 20, 29 - 30, July 1, 5 - 6
quiet to unsettled on June 25, 28, July 4, 7, 10, 13
quiet to active on June 17 - 18, 23 - 24, 26 - 27, July 8 - 9, 11 - 12
active to disturbed on June (18), July 2 - 3

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected:
on June 17 - 18, 23 - 24, 26 - 27, July 2 - 3, 8 - 12


Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz