venerdì 18 dicembre 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period December 18 - 24, 2015

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.5-B7.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 95-130 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-90

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 18 - 24, 2015

At most, we expect quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions during the next
week.
Dec 18 - 21 quiet to unsettled conditions.
Dec 21 - 24 more unsettled, active episode possible.

Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics ASCR
Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 18, 2015 - Jan 11, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on December 21 - 22, 24, January 9
mostly quiet on December 23, 30, January 4, 8
quiet to unsettled on December 20, 29, January 3, 7, 11
quiet to active on December 18, 25 - 27, 31, January 5 - 6
active to disturbed on December 19, 28, January 1 - 2, 10

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on December (16 - 17,)
18, (19,) 26 - 27, (28 - 29,) January 2 - 4, 7 - 8

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions remains reduced.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz