martedì 21 luglio 2015

Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 July 2015

Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 13 Jul but
increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from Region 2381
(N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17, L=271,
class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210 UTC
respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul. Ground
observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near
N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not geoeffective.
Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced a C1
flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep
(est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with
an estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not
expected to be geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare
was observed at 19/1040 UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree
long filament eruption located in the SW quadrant centered near
S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output,
revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the northern flank of
the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23 Jul.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 13 Jul due
to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were
observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided. Quiet
conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 20 JULY - 15 AUGUST 2015

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27 Jul.
Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to the
return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to low
levels for the remainder of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul before an
anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected to
redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26 Jul
followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following
elevated wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels
are expected from 03-05 Aug and 10-15 Aug following recurrent
negative and positive polarity high speed streams respectively.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active
levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS
followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects subside.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to a
possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close
succession by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms likely on 01 Aug when
the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are likely
from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity HSS,
followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled
conditions from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jul 20 0509 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-07-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Jul 20     100          10          4
2015 Jul 21     100           5          2
2015 Jul 22     105           5          2
2015 Jul 23     110          15          4
2015 Jul 24     105          10          4
2015 Jul 25     110           5          2
2015 Jul 26     110           5          2
2015 Jul 27     105           5          2
2015 Jul 28     110           5          2
2015 Jul 29     110           5          2
2015 Jul 30     110           5          2
2015 Jul 31     110          18          5
2015 Aug 01     115          25          5
2015 Aug 02     115          12          4
2015 Aug 03     115           5          2
2015 Aug 04     115           5          2
2015 Aug 05     110           5          2
2015 Aug 06     105          20          5
2015 Aug 07     100          25          5
2015 Aug 08     100          15          4
2015 Aug 09     100          10          4
2015 Aug 10      95           8          3
2015 Aug 11      95           5          2
2015 Aug 12      95           5          2
2015 Aug 13      95           5          2
2015 Aug 14      90           5          2
2015 Aug 15      85           5          2
(SWPC via DXLD)